Polymarket data shows the market expects a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March.

According to Polymarket, a forecasting market platform, as of March 18, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged at its March meeting was 94%, a significant increase from previous levels; the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was about 5%, a rate cut of more than 50 basis points was less than 1%, and a rate hike of more than 25 basis points was also about 1%. The cumulative trading volume for this contract was approximately $144 million. Market pricing reflects that traders generally expect policy to remain stable in the short term.