A Federal Reserve research paper states that market forecasting has significant analytical value.

A recent paper published by researchers at the Federal Reserve highly praises the role of forecasting markets in economic analysis, specifically highlighting the performance of the forecasting platform Kalshi. The report points out that Kalshi's forecasts of the federal funds rate and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistically outperform federal funds futures and professional economist forecasts, providing continuously updated complete probability distributions rather than traditional discontinuous point forecasts. The study also argues that forecasting markets provide unique market-based distribution data in areas such as GDP growth, core inflation, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls, variables for which comparable market pricing tools were previously lacking. Since 2022, Kalshi's forecasts of federal funds rate meetings have been perfectly consistent with actual results. The report notes that a major advantage of forecasting markets lies in the participation of retail investors, distinguishing them from traditional institutionally dominated financial markets and giving them unique value in information integration and real-time reflection of market expectations.