Analysis: SOPR has fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range, indicating marginal improvement in the macro environment, but a structural bull market for BTC has not yet been established.

Bitfinex released an analysis report pointing out that declining inflation and rising expectations of interest rate cuts in the US market provide psychological support for risk assets, but the crypto market is more likely to exhibit phased fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend. The expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduces systemic liquidity risk, which historically benefits scarce assets such as Bitcoin. However, the current pace of liquidity recovery is slow, and spot Bitcoin selling pressure re-emerged at the beginning of this week, with cumulative sell-offs reaching billions of dollars. Although the market's ability to absorb selling pressure has improved compared to before, on-chain indicators show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range, reflecting that most cryptocurrencies are shifting to a loss-making state, and structural pressure remains. The current macroeconomic environment provides some liquidity buffer for the crypto market, but it is not enough to support a sustained bull market. Bitcoin has short-term tactical rebound potential, but a long-term structural upward trend still requires clearer signals of declining inflation and sustained spot demand.