Bitwise CIO Discusses Bitcoin Market Cycles and Investor Trends

On February 11, Bitwise Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, discussed the reasons behind the cryptocurrency bear market in an interview with CNBC. According to BlockBeats, Hougan attributed the downturn to the 'four-year cycle,' a recurring phenomenon in the crypto market that has occurred three times. Hougan noted that investors are currently favoring other popular investment options, such as gold and artificial intelligence stocks, over cryptocurrencies. He mentioned concerns about quantum computing risks and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, which have been amplified during the bear market. Despite the current market weakness, Hougan believes that the development of cryptocurrency-focused ETFs should not be hindered. He described the market's current state as a 'self-fulfilling prophecy.' "There is good news beneath the surface, but it is unfolding slowly," Hougan stated. He emphasized that Bitcoin's financialization does not fundamentally alter its scarcity argument, as the total supply remains capped at 21 million coins. While it may affect short-term trading dynamics, the demand for derivatives will ultimately impact the spot market. It is noteworthy that in late 2025, particularly around December, Hougan publicly declared on social media, blogs, podcasts, and interviews that the 'four-year cycle is dead.' At that time, Bitcoin prices were high, and Hougan's outlook was optimistic and institutional, highlighting that institutional funds and mature markets had 'killed' the cycle.