Matrixport's weekly report states that after a rapid pullback, Bitcoin reached a key downside target range, but the market is still teetering between "improved macroeconomic environment" and "insufficient technical correction." Rising growth indicators, stronger fiscal policy, and a weaker dollar should have supported risk assets; however, Bitcoin has yet to provide a clear and sustainable reversal confirmation. Technically, key trend levels previously used to distinguish between "phased rebounds" and "structural downtrends" have been broken and lost, and previous support zones have now become resistance. Therefore, the recent rebound is more like a corrective recovery after a decline, rather than a shift in trend or structure. Positioning structure further amplifies upward pressure: a large amount of capital entered at higher price levels, with limited reductions during the pullback. In the absence of a convincing new narrative or catalyst, this existing capital is more likely to translate into upward supply pressure rather than effective support. From a cyclical perspective, the current situation resembles the top of the late stage of a cycle. Historically, in similar phases, even with improved macroeconomic conditions, prices may not immediately stop falling, often experiencing a period of decline or weak consolidation, with the center of gravity eventually shifting further downward. The reasons stem from the capital structure and participation: When the market is crowded and participation weakens, funds that entered at high levels tend to recoup their losses and reduce risks during rebounds. Selling pressure is likely to outweigh the absorption of new funds, and macroeconomic benefits are more difficult to transform into sustained upward momentum in the short term.
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