Institutions predict that the "mini-nonfarm payrolls" growth will slow and will be significantly lower than the January nonfarm payrolls figure.

Dave Sloan, senior economist for North America at Continuum Economics, an independent macroeconomic research firm, expects ADP employment to increase by 30,000 in January, a slowdown from 41,000 in December. He also anticipates the ADP report will be significantly lower than January's non-farm payrolls, as he expects overall non-farm payrolls to grow by 85,000 in January. While December's ADP data was largely in line with non-farm payrolls, recent ADP figures have tended to be weaker, averaging 22,000 lower than non-farm payrolls over the past six months. Although the gap narrowed compared to September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. January's non-farm payrolls are expected to rebound from recent weakness in retail sales, a factor with a smaller impact on ADP data. The January ADP breakdown is expected to show a slight improvement in goods-producing sectors (particularly construction), but a slowdown in the service sector. The recent trend of ADP data underperforming non-farm payrolls is most evident in the service sector, with the data discrepancy being particularly pronounced in the education and healthcare industries. (Jinshi)