Matrixport: BTC remains in a bear market environment, but maintains a relatively positive outlook on overall risk assets.

Matrixport, in an analysis published on the X platform, points out that Bitcoin remains in a bear market environment based on on-chain data and technical indicators, with the most direct signal being that the price is still below the 21-week moving average. Furthermore, the US midterm election year is typically accompanied by increased policy uncertainty and fluctuating risk appetite, and this time window overlaps with a typical four-year cycle for Bitcoin, historically making prices more prone to weakness during this period. Even so, a relatively positive outlook remains for overall risk assets. The reflation narrative persists, and the US dollar remains in a relatively weak trading range. To hedge against the pressure from weakening purchasing power, dollar-denominated funds typically tend to maintain a relatively high allocation to risk assets. Recently, Trump has neither released clear support signals nor made any strong statements regarding the weakening dollar, which the market tends to interpret as an increased tolerance for further dollar weakness. Coupled with some international funds increasing their allocation to non-US assets and reducing their concentration in US assets, this background suggests that reflation trades may still find support in the short term.