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Currency teenager: Bitcoin’s recent sell-off is almost all caused by short-term speculators

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, released its monthly outlook report on the 12th, pointing out that in recent weeks, excessive leverage and improper risk management in the cryptocurrency ecosystem have exacerbated the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, and concerns about solvency have forced the realization of The scale of the losses continued to mount and exposed other flaws in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

However, in response to market trends, Coinbase pointed out that analysis based on on-chain data shows that the recent Bitcoin sell-off was almost entirely caused by short-term speculators, and that long-term Bitcoin holders (defined as holding Bitcoin for more than 6 months) did not. Selling Bitcoin due to market weakness.

According to Coinbase, the holdings of long-term holders currently account for 77% of the total supply of Bitcoin. Although it is slightly down from 80% at the beginning of the year, it is still quite high. The 60% level was at the peak of last month's bull market, when bitcoin prices peaked ahead of the cryptocurrency winter.

Coinbase believes that this is a positive sentiment indicator, and these long-term holders are unlikely to sell Bitcoin during times of market turmoil. Therefore, even if retail demand falls sharply like a bear market, because these long-term holders still hold Bitcoin , providing a basis for market stability, with bitcoin’s supply and demand remaining in balance while speculators sell off.

Coinbase finally stated that the recent sell-off in the market was related to the misplacement of short-term borrowing vs. long-term illiquid assets. Cryptoassets may not have bottomed out before their stock earnings forecasts are finally revised down, and if stock earnings forecasts show some form of stabilization, the bottom could be now.

Coinbase concluded that the cryptocurrency asset still looks supported, as on-chain data shows that many speculative holders have been removed, and the majority of Bitcoin's supply is currently held by long-term holders, while speculators In the future, it is possible to make greater determination to sell the bitcoins held in their hands to make them weaken further, which is a prerequisite for the market to eventually recover, and the recovery of the currency market may come in the fourth quarter of this year.

Dimon Talks Cryptocurrencies Again

At the same time, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said in an exclusive interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro that the Federal Reserve's forecast for this year's inflation rate of 4% is too optimistic, and the European and American economies have a soft landing is getting less and less likely because a recession is more and more likely. Germany currently faces the greatest challenge due to its dependence on Russian gas.

In addition, Dimon also expressed his views on cryptocurrencies, thinking that even if Bitcoin does not show systemic risks, it is a pity that regulators did not intervene earlier, because the risks associated with cryptocurrencies have been well known for many years.

Dimon said in an exclusive interview with Spain's "Nation" this week that he would never invest in cryptocurrencies. Although JPMorgan Chase is one of the largest blockchain users in the world, he never understood the value of cryptocurrencies as investment assets. Value, he acknowledged that cryptocurrencies have become popular, but believes that cryptocurrencies are a system very similar to Ponzi schemes.

The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The currency circle fluctuates greatly, and investment needs to be rational.

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