Key TakeawaysOnchain data shows short-term DOGE holders are accumulating despite recent volatility.Technical patterns mirror previous Dogecoin bull cycles, pointing to a possible move toward $1.60 by early 2026.Metrics like MVRV Z-Score and Hodl Waves indicate the market remains in an early expansion phase.Analysts say the current uncertainty could be bullish, echoing conditions before past major rallies.DOGE Recovers After 66% Flash CrashDogecoin holders are quietly accumulating again after a violent sell-off earlier this month that erased much of its summer gains.On October 10, DOGE plunged 66% in a flash crash, falling from $0.25 to $0.08 within hours before rebounding to around $0.20. The liquidation event wiped out more than $365 million in long positions — more than four times the previous yearly high of $89 million — as leverage across derivatives markets collapsed.Yet, according to multiple analysts, the move may have triggered a “reset phase” that sets the stage for another long-term uptrend.Onchain Metrics Signal Accumulation, Not EuphoriaDespite the crash, onchain data shows that short-term holders and retail investors are accumulating DOGE.Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, said that Dogecoin has not yet entered a “euphoria” phase, a stage that historically marks market tops.“DOGE reached its previous cycle top in December 2024 right at the CVDD Alpha metric — a model that has identified every major DOGE peak since 2016,” Wedson explained.The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD Alpha) metric, which tracks the transfer of older coins and measures market maturity, suggests that DOGE is well below overheated territory.Meanwhile, Hodl Waves data shows an increasing share of DOGE supply is held by wallets with coins aged under six months — a sign of fresh speculative inflows. Historically, this precedes strong uptrends, as new capital pushes Dogecoin’s Realized Cap higher.The MVRV Z-Score, a ratio of market value to realized value, also remains far below euphoric levels seen in 2021, reinforcing the idea that DOGE’s current phase is one of early accumulation rather than a late-stage rally.Retail Positioning Remains Neutral — A Constructive SetupAccording to CryptoQuant data, retail participation in DOGE remains balanced — neither overheated nor disengaged. This equilibrium often signals accumulation outweighing speculation, creating a foundation for more sustained rallies.Historically, Dogecoin’s major upswings have started during periods of disbelief and fatigue, when sentiment is cautious but underlying metrics strengthen.“Every major DOGE rally began once price persistence above the 25-day moving average was confirmed after a prolonged downtrend,” said crypto trader EtherNasyonal.At present, DOGE has broken above that trendline and entered a retest phase, matching the conditions seen at the start of its 2020–2021 and 2014–2017 bull runs.Analysts See Breakout Potential Toward $1.60 by 2026Market analyst Trader Tardigrade said Dogecoin’s current technical structure closely resembles its 2014–2017 cycle, when the memecoin saw exponential growth after prolonged consolidation.He suggested that if the pattern holds, DOGE could enter a breakout phase in late 2025, potentially targeting $1.60 by Q1 2026 — aligning with historical fractal projections and the broader crypto market expansion cycle.Still, analysts caution that the move depends on broader liquidity trends, ETF flows, and macro sentiment toward risk assets.Cautious Optimism PrevailsWhile Dogecoin remains volatile and sentiment cautious following the flash crash, onchain and technical indicators suggest the groundwork for a new bullish cycle may already be forming.For now, accumulation, not euphoria, defines the DOGE market — and if history rhymes, the quiet phase of disbelief could be setting the stage for another powerful leg higher.
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