QCP Capital: Macro Environment Still Favors Institutional Crypto Investment Amid Geopolitical Risks

Key Takeaways:Tentative U.S.–China trade progress supports market sentiment, but tech export tensions persist.Middle East tensions rise; oil spikes 7–9% as investors rotate into defensive assets.Trump pressures Fed for 100 bps rate cut; CPI data comes in below expectations.QCP Capital says conditions remain favorable for institutional capital in digital assets.June 12, 2025 – In its latest market commentary, QCP Capital says the macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive for institutional crypto adoption and capital allocation, even as geopolitical and trade risks intensify.The firm notes that markets welcomed signs of progress in U.S.–China trade talks, with President Trump announcing a partial rollback of planned tariffs. However, optimism remains tempered by ongoing tech export restrictions, including a firm stance by the U.S. Commerce Secretary that advanced chips will not be provided to China—a signal of continued global supply chain bifurcation.Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. The U.S. began withdrawing diplomats amid stalled nuclear negotiations, following Israeli warnings of potential strikes on Iran. Brent crude oil surged 7–9% intraday, triggering a risk-off rotation into defensive assets.Adding to macro uncertainty, market speculation briefly surfaced around Bessant potentially replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though Bessant reaffirmed his commitment to remain at the Treasury until 2029. Separately, Trump called for a 100 basis point rate cut after CPI data showed softer-than-expected inflation, arguing that high debt costs are unsustainable.Despite these pressures, QCP Capital maintains a bullish stance on institutional crypto involvement, pointing to strong underlying macro tailwinds and continued appetite for digital asset exposure.