Arthur Hayes Says AI IPO Dilution and Credit Tightening Could Pressure Crypto Markets

Arthur Hayes wrote in “D is for Dilution” that SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could face large-scale share unlocks and dilution after going public, potentially weighing on their stock prices and ability to raise funds. According to Odaily, Hayes estimated that SpaceX could add about 8.6 billion shares to its public float by June 2027, a roughly 50% increase in share supply, while Anthropic’s IPO investors could face dilution of up to 83%. Hayes said prolonged weakness in major AI companies’ shares could lead bond investors to demand higher yields, raise corporate financing costs and contribute to a contraction in AI-related credit. He said reduced AI financing could also slow or reverse bank balance-sheet growth, reduce dollar liquidity and pressure Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Hayes added that if an AI bubble triggered a financial crisis, major central banks and governments could respond with monetary expansion and liquidity support, potentially lifting crypto assets.