Bitcoin dipped to $75,600 as midterm results showed Democrats winning Congress, then rebounded 1.3% to $78,300 as stock futures turned positive. The sweep hit Trump-linked trades: Asian tech shares fell, the dollar slid against every G-10 peer, Treasury yields dropped, and TRUMP and WLFI lost 7.1% and 5%. DeFi tokens led the crypto rebound, up about 5%. Circle reported Q3 revenue of $865M, up 17%, with Binance taking a $100M equity stake. Friday’s US jobs report is next.Democratic Congressional Sweep Shakes Trump Trades in AI Stocks and CryptoA Democratic sweep of Congress jolted global markets, per Bloomberg, dragging Asian tech shares and the dollar lower while lifting Treasuries. Investors are rethinking trades built on Trump’s deregulation and AI buildout agenda, as Democratic control is expected to bring investigations and tougher oversight of spending plans, though his veto limits legislative change. Floodlines Research’s Anna Wu: more scrutiny on data centers, power use and local approvals means investors “cut AI first and ask questions later.” KOSPI fell as much as 4% with Samsung and SK Hynix each down more than 5% before paring, Japan’s tech-heavy benchmark dropped almost 5%, and Taiwan slid as much as 3.4%. Solar stocks rallied: Hanwha Solutions up as much as 17%, Enphase and SolarEdge up as much as 12%, First Solar up 11%. The dollar fell as much as 0.4% against a G-10 basket, its biggest drop in a month; the 5-year yield fell as much as 9bps to 4.68% and the 10-year 7bps to 4.89%. Bitcoin fell as much as 2.8% to below $76,000. Brent traded near $103 on US-Iran peace efforts, and gold rose as much as 0.9% to above $3,960.Bitcoin Rebounds to $78,300 From Midterm Dip as DeFi Tokens Lead GainsBitcoin rose about 1.3% to $78,300 since midnight UTC after dipping to around $75,600 near 03:00 UTC as results arrived. CoinDesk reported the results raise fresh questions over crypto legislation. Ether gained 2% and the CoinDesk 80 rose 2.3%. The DeFi Select Index rose about 5% with all seven members higher, led by INJ (+6.2%) and ENA. Venice (VVV) led the CoinDesk 100 at about 7%; ZEC gained 5%. Trump-linked tokens fell: TRUMP -7.1%, WLFI -5%, and Trump Media shares were down 6.5% pre-market. Futures volume rose 27% while open interest rose only 3%, and liquidations rose 22% to $469M. ZEC open interest jumped 25% with the strongest market-order buying. Bitcoin’s one-week implied volatility fell from about 41% to 34% and skew returned to near its starting level after jumping to about 19%. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 37 and the altcoin season index at 51. Friday’s jobs report is next.Circle Q3 Revenue Climbs 17% to $865 Million on ARC Token Presale as Binance Takes $100 Million StakeCircle reported Q3 revenue and reserve income of $865M (+17%), adjusted EBITDA up 85% to $317M and net income from continuing operations up 5% to $226M. Both headline figures were lifted by $182M from the ARC token presale; excluding it, revenue was about $683M, down about 8%. Reserve income fell 8% to $658M as the reserve return rate dropped 61bps to 3.5%. Binance made a $100M equity investment and renewed and expanded its USDC partnership, focused on emerging markets. USDC circulation was $73.9B, flat year over year, with market share slipping to 27%, while USDC held on Circle’s platform rose 36% to $13.9B. Arc launched on public mainnet September 16, and Circle agreed to buy Tazapay, expected to close in 2027. Guidance was unchanged, and the quarter included a roughly 5% workforce reduction.AMD, Meta and Circle Give Up Early Pre-Market Gains, With Circle Down 3.18% After Q3 ResultsIn US pre-market trading on November 4, early gains faded. AMD fell 1.2%, wiping out an earlier gain of as much as 8.1%. Meta was up 0.61% at $626, down from as much as 2.53%, after its first euro-denominated bonds drew a record €53B in orders. Circle fell 3.18% to $72.83 after rising as much as 3.72%, following its Q3 results. Pre-market moves trade on thin volume and may not hold at the open.Nasdaq 100 Futures Turn Negative as Nvidia Falls 1.1% in Pre-MarketNasdaq 100 futures gave up earlier gains and turned negative on November 4, with Nvidia down 1.1% in US pre-market trading.
Weiliang
Alex
Miyuki
Anais