Contrary Partner Kyle Harrison Says Venture Capital Is Being McDonaldized

Contrary General Partner Kyle Harrison wrote on October 31 that venture capital is undergoing “McDonaldization,” as efficiency, calculability, predictability and control can produce unintended outcomes. According to ChainCatcher, Harrison described scale and consensus as symptoms and said the industry has split into different models that share the same name. Harrison cited PitchBook data showing that a16z raised $23.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2026, accounting for more than 20% of U.S. venture fundraising during the period. U.S. venture funds raised $108.5 billion in those three quarters, about 39% more than in all of 2025. The number of first-time funds fell from 479 in 2022 to 195 in 2025 and 81 so far this year. Funds at their fourth vintage or later captured 88.2% of fundraising, the largest share in PitchBook’s records. He also said AI’s share of U.S. venture investment rose from 39% in 2023 to 51% in 2024, 65% in 2025 and 82.7% so far in 2026. In the first quarter of this year, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Waymo and Databricks together accounted for 73.2% of U.S. deal value. Since 2023, annual U.S. venture investment outside AI has remained at roughly $100 billion to $120 billion. Harrison argued that when fund size drives decisions, every deal must fit the fund’s scale. Harrison previously worked at Index Ventures, Coatue and TCV, and founded research platform Contrary Research. His article was published in his column on the same day.