Analyst PlanB has declared the Bitcoin bear market over, saying the token has reclaimed the 50-week moving average at approximately $79,000 with the 100-week average around $89,000 as the next target.He pointed to Bitcoin's August close of $78,571 alongside improving indicators: the proportion of supply in profit rising from 50% to 72%, and monthly RSI climbing from 41 to 51.Two Different 50-Week Lines Are in CirculationThe level PlanB cites does not match the figure appearing elsewhere this month.Glassnode and technical coverage through September have placed the 50-week simple moving average at $81,081, where Bitcoin was rejected at an $81,265 intraday high in late August and has not cleared since.The 50-week exponential moving average sits lower at $77,430. Bitcoin reclaimed that line on Monday, lost it Tuesday when price fell below $75,000, and recovered it again this week.The EMA weights recent prices more heavily, which pulls it down during a drawdown and makes it the first line reclaimed on a recovery. The SMA is the slower, more demanding test.At $78,000, Bitcoin sits above the EMA and below the SMA. Which line counts determines whether the reclaim has happened, and PlanB's $79,000 figure matches neither exactly.The Underlying Indicators Are VerifiableThe supporting data is stronger than the level dispute suggests.Supply in profit rising from 50% to 72% is a substantial shift. That metric tracks what share of circulating Bitcoin was acquired below the current price, and a 22-point move means a large cohort of holders has crossed from underwater to profitable.It is also a lagging measure. Supply in profit rises mechanically as price rises, so it confirms the move rather than predicting the next one.Monthly RSI moving from 41 to 51 crosses the midpoint that separates bearish from bullish momentum on that timeframe. Monthly RSI is slow enough that the crossing is meaningful, though a reading of 51 is barely above neutral.The $89,000 Target Requires Clearing the Supply Wall FirstWhatever the 50-week line is worth, the obstacle between here and $89,000 is well documented.Glassnode data shows nearly 8% of total supply was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000 — the largest concentration at any comparable range — with the US spot ETF cohort's average cost basis in the same band.Bitcoin reached $82,284 on September 4 and has not cleared it. FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich placed the upper edge of the established range near $82,000.Roughly 8% of supply becoming profitable simultaneously creates the conditions for selling into strength, which is what "supply wall" describes. Clearing it requires sustained spot demand rather than leverage.The Demand Data Has Not Confirmed the CallSpot buying does not currently match the bullish read.CryptoQuant's spot demand metric sits at −145,000 BTC after nearly turning positive at −5,000 in late August, giving back roughly 70% of a month's improvement. The Coinbase premium index turned negative, indicating US institutional buyers paying below the global market.Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $450 million on September 15, the heaviest single-day outflow since June 25, and the funds remain roughly $1 billion negative year-to-date.Positioning is light. Santiment showed BTC-denominated open contracts falling 13.5% between September 3 and 11 against a 5% price decline, leaving positioning about 20% below pre-rally levels.Blockware Intelligence's Mitchell Askew reads that as seller exhaustion — "anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold." The competing reading is that thin positioning means absent buyers as well as absent sellers, which produces the same chart with different implications.The Week Supplied Reasons for Both ReadingsBitcoin traded around $78,000 Friday in a third consecutive day of gains, with every major higher and none of the 40 most liquid coins down.The Fed delivered its first hike since 2023 with a dot plot pointing to just one more in 2026 — below the 75 basis points markets had priced. The SEC granted an innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues two days after the Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50.WTI fell more than 5% to below $96 and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.96%, snapping an eight-day rising streak.Bitcoin is down 1.5% in September against a historical average of roughly 3% since 2013, and remains up about 32% for the quarter.PlanB's track record is mixed. His stock-to-flow model produced price targets that did not materialise across prior cycles, and the bottom call is a directional judgment rather than a model output.
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