One Bitcoin is currently worth approximately 18.55 ounces of gold, according to analyst Miller Cole, against roughly 15.3 at this time last month.The ratio has again exceeded its 50-week simple moving average, which Cole reads as a bullish signal. He expects the BTC/XAU price to see significant new highs in the coming years.Gold Falling Did Most of the WorkA 21% move in the ratio across a month looks like Bitcoin strength. The components say otherwise.Bitcoin traded around $79,400 in mid-August and sits near $78,000 now — a small decline. Gold peaked above $4,587 in that window and has since fallen to roughly $4,300-$4,400, a drop of several hundred dollars.The ratio rose because the denominator shrank.That distinction matters for what the signal means. A ratio breakout driven by Bitcoin outperforming reflects capital choosing one store of value over another. A ratio breakout driven by gold underperforming reflects something happening in the gold market that may have nothing to do with Bitcoin.Gold Has Fallen Three Straight Weeks on RatesThe gold side has a specific explanation.Spot gold posted a third consecutive weekly decline through mid-September, falling to $4,296.68 as traders priced a Federal Reserve hike at 89% to 94% across venues. It remains roughly 23% below its January record of $5,600.Gold's 90-day correlation with the 10-year Treasury yield sits at −0.41 against Bitcoin's −0.17. Gold responds more than twice as strongly to the same rate move, which is why a rate-driven period separates the two assets mechanically.The 10-year reached 5.04% on September 15, its highest since July 2007, before easing to 4.96% after the Fed's dot plot pointed to just one more hike in 2026.Gold has since recovered, climbing about 1% to just below $4,400 on Friday.The Correlation Between Them Has CollapsedThe two assets have historically moved together as debasement hedges, and that relationship has broken down.CoinMarketCap data show Bitcoin's short-window correlation with gold at 0.28, against 0.69 over 30 days. That is a substantial weakening, and it occurred alongside similar breakdowns against the Dollar Index and the S&P 500 after the Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote.Earlier this year the two carried a 0.59 correlation, the highest since 2020.A ratio is only informative when both components are being driven by the same forces. At 0.28, they are not.The 50-Week Signal Has Been Crossed BeforeCole says the ratio has "again" exceeded its 50-week simple moving average, which is the qualifier worth holding onto.A level crossed repeatedly is a level the market is oscillating around rather than breaking out from. The same caution applies to Bitcoin's own 50-week lines, which have been reclaimed and lost several times this month.Moving average crossings are also lagging by construction. A 50-week average only clears after enough strong readings accumulate to drag it there, which means the move producing the signal has already happened.The Long-Term Case Rests on Supply, Not This MonthCole's expectation of significant new highs in BTC/XAU over coming years is a different argument from the one this month's data supports.The structural case is straightforward. Bitcoin's issuance is fixed and halving, while gold's supply grows roughly 1.5% to 2% annually through mining. A ratio between a fixed-supply asset and a growing-supply one should trend in one direction over long horizons, absent a collapse in demand.Central banks have been buying gold heavily — the PBOC added 650,000 ounces in a recent month, its largest since 2023, across 22 consecutive months of purchases. That is a demand source Bitcoin does not have at comparable scale.The all-time high for the ratio came in late 2021 when Bitcoin traded near $69,000 against gold around $1,800, putting it above 38. The current 18.55 is less than half that.
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