The 10-year Treasury yield cleared 5% for the first time since October 2023 and the 30-year hit 5.40% — its highest since June 2007 — as the curve steepened ahead of Wednesday's near-certain 25bps Fed hike. Bitcoin lost the 50-week EMA at $77,430 it reclaimed Monday, falling to $76,000 as 92 of the CoinDesk 100 constituents declined. Clarity Act odds halved on Polymarket to 17-18% after Democrats tabled a counterproposal hours before Tuesday's cloture vote. Strategy passed Ford by market cap with its Bitcoin position up less than 1%. The BOJ decision Friday is the one that matters most for crypto — a carry trade unwind is mechanical selling that correlation data doesn't capture.Bitcoin Slides to $76,000 as the 50-Week EMA Reclaim Fails and Yields Hit 5.04%Bitcoin fell 4.4% from Monday's $79,530 overnight high to $76,000 — losing the 50-week EMA at $77,430 it had just reclaimed and breaking below the $77,100 floor of the Bitfinex spot absorption zone. The 10-year reached 5.04%, the level QCP had described pre-CPI as "the worst mix for Bitcoin: a competing 5% risk-free rate without the nominal-growth impulse that usually accompanies yield moves." A level reclaimed and then lost carries the opposite implication of one that breaks and recovers — Friday's $76,046 dip was bought within the session; Tuesday's slide was not. Put options turned marginally pricier than calls for the first time since the August recovery: 7-day 25-delta skew moved from +2.16v to -1.05v. The BOJ decision Friday at 1.25% is the most consequential remaining event for crypto — carry unwind is mechanical selling that Bitcoin's -0.17 yield correlation does not insulate it from. US Index Futures Reverse Into the Red With the Dow Down 0.74% Before the FedUS futures turned uniformly lower — Dow -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.71%, S&P 500 -0.60% — reversing morning gains and confirming a macro rather than sectoral driver. Monday's selloff was semiconductor-specific; Tuesday's uniform weakness across Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq describes something broader. Four pressures converged simultaneously: 10-year at 5.04%, Brent above $107, 94% Fed hike odds, and AI uncertainty after Amodei's weekend call — each individually manageable, arriving together without the usual offsets. The long end is doing the damage: in Asian trading the 10-year rose 6.2bps against the 2-year's 4.4bps, steepening the curve and reversing Friday's CPI-driven flattening. ING: "Logically, a rate hike should have calmed the long end, yet the long end is typically extremely volatile." Crypto fell alongside equities Tuesday rather than against them — Bitcoin's Monday decoupling did not repeat.The 30-Year Tops 5.40% and the 10-Year Clears 5% as the Curve Steepens Into the FedThe 30-year hit 5.40% — its highest since June 2007 — while the 10-year cleared 5% for the first time since October 2023. The curve's reversal is the analytical core: Friday's CPI produced flattening (2-year led, 10-year flat), reading as a market treating Fed response as adequate. Tuesday's steepening (10-year +6.2bps, 2-year +4.4bps) says the long end is pricing something the policy rate doesn't fix. Mischler's Tom di Galoma identified four drivers — rate expectations, debt supply, growth prospects, and fiscal trajectory — only the first of which resolves when the tightening cycle ends. Stanley Druckenmiller called Fed members describing policy as restrictive "just ridiculous," adding yields "if anything seem a little low." Bessent's buyback program drew $10.5B in tenders, accepted $5.2B below its own ceiling, and yields sat near session highs afterward — CNBC's Oliver Renick: a public buyer committed at any price removes the incentive to sell early. Tanker rates hit $1M per day for the first time ever, up from under $100,000 a year ago — an inflation input that passes through to every refined product moved by sea.Clarity Act Odds Halve on Polymarket as Democrats Table a Counterproposal Hours Before the VotePolymarket odds on the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year fell from 30-34% to 17-18% after Democrats crafted a counterproposal rejecting the revised 630-page Republican draft circulated Sunday. Tuesday's 2:15pm ET cloture vote requires ~60 votes — approximately 7 Democratic votes beyond the Republican base. The sticking point remains ethics language around officials' crypto holdings, not the market structure framework itself. ARP Digital's Yusuf Fakhro: "Downside from a failed vote is largely priced; a surprise passage is not." Siebert's Brian Vieten offered the dissenting view — a failure pulls product launches and tokenization work into 2027-2028 rather than shelving them. FxPro's Kuptsikevich: total crypto market cap at $2.65T matches May levels, when prediction markets gave CLARITY better than 75% odds — "the market is getting used to life without this legislation." Uniswap held its bid amid the selloff (+1% to $6.60), with more riding on the vote than most DeFi protocols.Strategy Passes Ford by Market Cap With Its Bitcoin Position Up Less Than 1%Strategy's market cap surpassed Ford's, making it the 200th largest US public company — with 845,050 BTC worth ~$64.2B against a $63.7B cost basis at $75,385 average. The position is up approximately 0.8%, roughly $520M on a $63.7B outlay. The company is allocating capital by buying back STRC preferred ($139.3M last week, $635.2M total, authorization doubled to $2B) rather than purchasing Bitcoin — a judgment that the discount on its securities offers better value than the asset at current prices. Strive is running the opposite playbook: 469 BTC acquired last week at par-value SATA preferred issuance, bringing holdings to 25,000 BTC. Same instrument type, opposite direction, determined entirely by where the preferred trades relative to par. STRC at $98.64 gives Strategy reason to buy back; SATA at par lets Strive keep issuing to buy Bitcoin.
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