Iran and Oman agreed terms on administering the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent below $90 for the first time since the conflict escalated — removing the energy-driven inflation shock from the table precisely as Warsh prepares to speak. Bitcoin held just under $80,000 after an overnight run to $81,280, with eight consecutive days of ETF inflows totaling $2.8B — August already the strongest inflow month of 2026. The $6.4B options expiry cleared with max pain at $68,000, roughly $12,000 below where Bitcoin settled. California passed AB 2409 barring officials from issuing meme coins. Dollar edged higher as the yen weakened.$6.4 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire With Price Near $80,000 and Max Pain at $68,000About 81,700 Bitcoin options worth $6.4B settled on Deribit at 08:00 UTC Friday. Max pain sat at $68,000-$70,000 — roughly $12,000 below where Bitcoin actually traded — a gap that measures how unanticipated the rally was. Options built during the six-week range between $61,500 and $66,900 at BVIV lows of 35.59% priced a narrow outcome distribution; calls at $75,000 and $80,000 that were far out-of-the-money when written finished near or in the money. BVIV climbed to 47% through the rally. Post-expiry, Deribit's Pequignot pointed to call spreads as the preferred structure for September upside exposure, with puts remaining expensive relative to calls. The supply wall at $80,000-$82,000 — where nearly 8% of Bitcoin's circulating supply sits — is the next test.Solana Jumps 20% on the Week as Bitcoin Tests $80,000 Ahead of Jackson HoleBitcoin ran to $81,280 overnight before pulling back just below $80,000 ahead of Warsh's keynote. Solana surged 4% to $101 — 20% on the week. Ether +1% to $2,492, XRP +2% to $1.43, BNB +1% to $714. The Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement sent Brent below $90 — down 5%+ on the week — removing the primary inflation shock heading into the Fed's September 16 decision. Futures still price 35% odds of a September hike and fully price a move by December. Bitcoin has rallied through rising hike expectations all month — a hawkish Warsh confirms what's already priced, but removes the ambiguity that has let the rally run. LMAX's Joel Kruger: "setbacks should now be limited, with the May high just below $83,000."Hong Kong's Hang Seng Closes Marginally Higher as Precious Metals Rally and AI Names FallThe Hang Seng closed up 0.07% as China Silver Group and Summit Resources both gained 7%+, while AI names Zhipu and MINIMAX-W fell 6% and 4% respectively — the same precious-metals-up, AI-down divergence visible across global markets for weeks. Chinese AI names not participating in the Nvidia-driven regional lift points to something separate from the demand story: the DUV lithography breakthrough and Nvidia pausing its AI cloud financing initiative are the specific overhangs. Gold slipped to $4,587 even as Hong Kong metals equities rallied — a common divergence between commodity and miners when equity flows lag the underlying.California AB 2409 Passes Legislature, Would Bar Officials From Issuing Meme CoinsAB 2409 has passed both chambers and awaits the governor's signature. The bill would prohibit California public officials from issuing meme coins and — from January 1, 2027 — bar digital asset service providers from offering California residents trading in meme coins issued by any federal, state or local official anywhere. The compliance obligation falls on exchanges, which would need to screen listings by issuer's public official status. The bill directly parallels the ethics provision that has stalled the federal CLARITY Act — California is legislating at the state level the question Congress cannot resolve. The CLARITY Act missed its August voting window and still needs 10 Senate Democrats to clear 60 votes. State laws and SEC rulemaking are filling the gap.Dollar Index Rises To 99.213 As Yen WeakensThe DXY edged up to 99.213 from 99.159 as the yen weakened to 159.67 per dollar. The dollar holding just above 99 — below its 200-day average of 99.1 — keeps the weaker-dollar backdrop that has supported both Bitcoin and gold broadly intact. A sustained break above 99.5 would begin to tighten that support. The yen at 159.67 keeps the carry trade unwind risk in the background — the same mechanism that crashed Bitcoin from $65,000 to $50,000 in a week in July 2024 becomes more live as the yen weakens further. Warsh's Jackson Hole tone will be the primary determinant of where the dollar goes from here.
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