Goldman Sachs Says Brent Could Top $120 in Q4 2026 in Extreme Strait Disruption Scenario

Goldman Sachs said Brent crude's upside risk now far outweighs its downside, as summer inventory draws are supporting prices in the near term, according to 36Kr. In an extreme scenario in which shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted until 2027, Gulf oil output would not fully recover until the end of 2027, and Brent could rise above $120 a barrel in Q4 2026 and average above $100 in 2027. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal are also blocked for a prolonged period, oil prices could climb another $25 a barrel.