Polymarket traders cut Clarity Act odds to record low as Senate delay drags on

Polymarket traders have cut the odds of the Clarity Act passing this year to a record low as Senate negotiations over ethics provisions remain unresolved. According to CoinDesk, traders put a 32% chance on the bill passing by Dec. 31, 2026, down from as high as 82% on Feb. 19, with no bipartisan ethics language yet emerging. If passed, the Clarity Act would create a federal framework for digital asset markets and define whether the SEC or CFTC regulates assets, but traders are increasingly doubtful it will reach President Donald Trump’s desk before year-end.