QCP Capital: Bitcoin Options Demand Shifts as U.S.-Iran Tensions and Key U.S. Data Loom

Bitcoin and Ethereum implied volatility has continued to rise as traders increased demand for Bitcoin put options expiring in July at the $55,000–$58,000 strikes, QCP Capital reported. According to ChainCatcher, the firm said U.S.-Iran tensions have resurfaced 12 days after the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding, with renewed military clashes over the weekend and mutual accusations of violating a 60-day ceasefire agreement, weighing on prospects for a second round of talks. QCP Capital noted oil prices have held near $70, but warned there remains upside risk if supply recovery is slower than expected. In crypto markets, QCP Capital cited continued net outflows from spot ETFs, concerns related to Strategy, and pressure on U.S. equities as factors dragging on sentiment. The firm also pointed to notable buying of Bitcoin call options at the $64,000 strike expiring on the 17th. Looking ahead, QCP Capital said markets will watch remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum, along with the ISM manufacturing PMI and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. With liquidity expected to be lower ahead of the holiday, the firm expects volatility to remain elevated.