IEA Raises 2026 Oil Demand Outlook, Sees Smaller Supply Decline

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its July 10 monthly report that global oil demand in 2026 is forecast to fall by 1.0 million barrels per day, compared with a previous estimate of a 1.1 million bpd decline, according to 36Kr. The IEA also revised its 2026 supply outlook, projecting global oil supply will drop by 3.7 million bpd versus an earlier forecast of a 3.9 million bpd decline. The report said global oil supply rose by 4.1 million bpd in June as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, but supply was still 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. The IEA warned that escalating U.S.-Iran tensions add uncertainty to the outlook and could upend its projection of a supply surplus in 2027.