Refined Oil Prices Expected to Fall in China as Crude Oil Declines

China’s next retail fuel price adjustment window is expected to result in a cut, as the negative range of the crude oil price change rate has widened. According to Jin10, a monitoring model from Sublime China Information showed that as of the close on June 17, the crude oil change rate referenced on the 10th working day was -11.62%. Based on the model, the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel are expected to be lowered by 515 yuan per metric ton and 495 yuan per metric ton, respectively. On a per-liter basis, the prices of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-grade diesel are expected to fall by 0.40 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.42 yuan, respectively. The adjustment window is scheduled for 24:00 on June 18, 2026. If the retail price cap cut is confirmed, a private car filling a 50-liter tank once would spend about 20 yuan less. Sublime China Information also estimated that for a private fuel vehicle traveling 2,000 kilometers per month with average fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, fuel costs would decrease by about 32 yuan per vehicle before the next adjustment window opens at 24:00 on July 3, 2026.