Analysts Say Gulf States Are Reassessing Reliance on U.S. Security After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Framework

Gulf countries are reexamining their long-standing reliance on U.S. security commitments after the United States and Iran reached a framework ceasefire agreement that has eased tensions in the Middle East. According to ChainCatcher, The New York Times reported that during nearly four months of regional conflict, Iran and its allies carried out attacks on Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, affecting military and energy infrastructure and at times disrupting normal operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts cited in the report said U.S. performance in defending against Iranian drone and missile attacks, as well as what they described as an insufficient response to the risk of a Strait of Hormuz closure, has raised new doubts among Gulf states about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East program at Chatham House, was quoted as saying U.S. security assurances are no longer as reliable as in the past. Some Gulf officials said governments have begun discussing ways to reduce dependence on a single security provider, including expanding defense cooperation with European and Asian countries, while also promoting regional military coordination and integrating weapons procurement. Bader al-Saif, a historian at Qatar University, said Gulf states have the financial resources and technical capacity to accelerate the development of independent defense capabilities and strengthen joint regional defense mechanisms. Analysts said the war could speed a shift toward more diversified security strategies while Gulf states maintain military cooperation with the United States.