STOCKS | Serenity Says Technical Analysis Reflects Market Psychology More Than Stock Prices

Serenity, known as the “white-haired stock guru,” said technical analysis (TA) is closer to traders’ “astrology” and is mainly a mix of confirmation bias and market psychology used to gauge sentiment rather than determine prices. According to Odaily, Serenity wrote on X that sharp gains in several stocks were not driven by chart patterns but by fundamentals and expectations. Serenity cited SIVE rising about 1,900%, attributing the move to the market repricing expectations for future revenue linked to JBL and GFS. Serenity also cited AXTI rising about 8,000%, linking the increase to industry factors including indium phosphide substrates, demand for photonics, and export controls. Serenity said TA can reflect participants’ psychological expectations and may help identify entry timing, but argued that factors shaping stock price trends include sector themes, changes in earnings expectations, the macro environment, financial report performance, and share float structure. Serenity added that long-term stock potential should be assessed through fundamentals and capital structure rather than reliance on charts.