Average Hourly Earnings Forecasts Cluster Around 3.4% Year Over Year in Reuters Survey

Forecasts for U.S. average hourly earnings showed a wide range of estimates for both the year-over-year and month-over-month readings. According to Jin10, for the year-over-year rate of average hourly earnings (previous: +3.6%), U.S. Bancorp projected +3.3%, while Capital Economics, Barclays, Citibank, DekaBank, HSBC, Hellenic Bank, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, Pantheon Macroeconomics, and Monex Group projected +3.4%. BNP Paribas, UBS Group, and Morgan Stanley projected +3.5%. A Reuters survey put the expectation at +3.4%. For the month-over-month rate of average hourly earnings (previous: +0.2%), Sparta Securities projected +0.1%. CIBC, U.S. Bancorp, and High Frequency Economics projected +0.2%. ANZ, BNP Paribas, Bank of America, Barclays, Capital Economics, Citibank, Commerzbank, Danske Bank, DekaBank, HSBC, JPMorgan, Hellenic Bank, Mizuho Securities, Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics, Morgan Stanley, Sumitomo Mitsui, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Scotiabank, Santander, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, and Wells Fargo projected +0.3%. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Nomura Securities, and UBS Group projected +0.4%. Reuters’ expectation was +0.3%.