Goldman Sachs Sees Dual Risks for Oil Prices Amid Weak Demand and Middle East Supply Losses

Goldman Sachs has identified dual risks for oil prices due to weak demand and supply losses in the Middle East caused by the Iran war. According to Jin10, analysts including Daan Struyven noted in a report on May 31 that April oil sales data from Western Europe indicate a downside risk of approximately 2 million barrels per day to the bank's already low demand forecast for April. This adds about $10 per barrel of downside risk to its forecast of $90 per barrel for Brent crude in the fourth quarter. Goldman analysts stated, "We believe that Middle East supply losses could last longer, posing significant upside price risks, but weak demand also presents significant downside price risks. Actual end-user oil demand may decline more than expected due to rising prices."