Key Takeaways
Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $74,937 after the FOMC confirmed rates hold at 3.50%–3.75%, citing Middle East uncertainty, before recovering to $75,947 on BinanceThe brief dip below the 20-day simple moving average at $75,664 was quickly absorbed, with Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma describing the move as classic post-FOMC stop-hunt behavior rather than conviction sellingThe global bid-ask ratio spiked to 0.3 -- one of its highest readings -- while open interest fell during the drop, signaling position squaring rather than directional sellingGlassnode flags Bitcoin as "trapped below market mean" at $79,000, with short-term holder profit-taking and net short futures positioning sapping bullish momentumInstitutional spot ETF inflows and rising CME open interest have built a "dense accumulation cluster" between $65,000 and $70,000, providing structural downside support
Bitcoin is trading at $75,947 on Binance, recovering from an intraday low of $74,937 hit immediately after the Federal Open Market Committee confirmed it would hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with the policy statement citing "developments in the Middle East" as a key source of economic uncertainty and stressing the Fed's desire to maintain optionality across both sides of its dual mandate.
The decision itself was fully priced in, but Bitcoin remained under pressure throughout Chairman Powell's final press conference as chair before finding its footing and recovering toward current levels. The bounce back above the critical 20-day simple moving average at $75,664 is a near-term positive, though analysts warn the broader structure remains fragile heading into May.
Classic Post-FOMC Behavior, Not Conviction Selling
Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma pushed back against a bearish interpretation of the price action, characterizing it as textbook post-FOMC positioning. "The usual sell the news reaction after the FOMC," Varma said, adding that BTC "quickly recovered to pre-announcement levels within hours, showing strong underlying conviction."
Derivatives data supported the read. The global bid-ask ratio spiked to 0.3 -- one of its highest readings on record -- while open interest fell during the price drop. Varma described the combination as "classic post-FOMC position squaring and stop-hunt behavior rather than conviction selling," with rising buy-side depth alongside falling open interest suggesting traders were absorbing the dip rather than pressing shorts.
Bearish Leverage Had Been Building Ahead of the Decision
Glassnode analysts had flagged deteriorating market structure before the FOMC minutes were published, noting that Bitcoin traders were adding bearish leverage ahead of the decision. Rising open interest following Tuesday's rally to $79,000, neutral funding rates, and a divergence between spot and futures cumulative volume delta left the market structurally exposed to a downside flush -- which duly arrived at $74,937 before reversing.
Trapped Below Market Mean
Glassnode's Week Onchain report described Bitcoin's broader price action as "trapped below market mean," with the True Market Mean sitting at $79,000 and having twice rejected Bitcoin's advance in recent sessions. A surge in short-term holder profit-taking alongside margin futures flipping net short has eroded the bullish momentum that drove April's recovery from $66,000.
The $65,000–$70,000 range is identified as structural support, but weak demand continues to prevent sustainable rallies above the market mean -- a stalemate that leaves Bitcoin sensitive to sharper downside moves if macro conditions deteriorate further.
Institutional Flows Provide a Floor
Despite near-term technical fragility, Glassnode identified a structural demand cushion that limits downside risk. Continued institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising CME open interest have created a "dense accumulation cluster" between $65,000 and $70,000, a zone where institutional buyers have been consistently absorbing supply and that would likely attract significant demand on any deeper pullback.
With Bitcoin now back above the 20-day moving average at $75,664, the immediate technical picture has stabilized. A sustained close above that level keeps the bull trend structure intact and maintains the case for another attempt at $79,000. Failure to hold it reopens the path toward the lower boundary of the four-month-old channel and the institutional accumulation zone below.
Anais
Weatherly