Bank of America reports that Kalshi has captured a significant 91% share of the U.S. prediction market. According to NS3.AI, the platform's weekly trading volume has experienced a notable increase over the past year.

Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the 'Fed's mouthpiece,' has highlighted that the ceasefire between the US and Iran presents an opportunity to mitigate the severe threats to the global economy. According to Jin10, this development, however, may pose a different challenge for the Federal Reserve. The ongoing volatility in energy prices could keep inflation at elevated levels, yet not severe enough to disrupt demand, potentially prolonging the current interest rate stance. The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes emphasized that the conflict was not the primary reason for the Fed's reluctance to cut rates, but it has complicated the already cautious stance. Even before the conflict, the path to rate cuts was narrow. The labor market has stabilized, easing recession fears, but progress towards the Fed's 2% inflation target has stalled. In March, the Fed did not adjust interest rates, partly due to concerns about the long-term risks of the conflict. The potential for the conflict to escalate and drag down economic growth, leading to a recession, was a strong argument for resuming rate cuts. Paradoxically, the end of the conflict might make it harder for the Fed to implement easing policies in the short term. This is because the ceasefire removes the worst-case economic scenario of severe price hikes disrupting supply chains and demand, which is arguably more critical than eliminating new inflationary pressures.

Anthropic has decided to restrict access to its Claude Mythos AI system to vetted cybersecurity groups. According to NS3.AI, this decision follows pre-release tests that revealed thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities and an 84% exploit success rate on Firefox 147's JavaScript engine. Anthropic's comprehensive 244-page system card highlighted that many existing cyber benchmarks were no longer adequately informative and disclosed significant evaluation oversights discovered late in the testing process.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has appointed David Woodcock as the new enforcement director, following the departure of Margaret Ryan. According to NS3.AI, SEC Chair Paul Atkins emphasized the importance of Woodcock's return during a pivotal period for the agency, as it intensifies efforts to address misconduct that significantly impacts investors. This leadership transition occurs amidst growing scrutiny from lawmakers regarding the SEC's approach to cryptocurrency cases, particularly after the agency recently dropped or dismissed several cases involving prominent crypto companies.

Nunchuk has introduced two open-source repositories under the MIT license aimed at enhancing Bitcoin agents. According to NS3.AI, these repositories include a wallet command-line interface (CLI) and an Agent Skills layer. The design incorporates shared custody and policy co-signing, allowing AI agents to manage routine tasks while users retain control over transactions that exceed predefined limits.

Bitcoin experienced a rebound after a two-week ceasefire led to a decrease in oil prices. According to NS3.AI, the odds of U.S. President Donald Trump being impeached before the end of his term were at 64% on April 7, as indicated by Polymarket. A similar contract on Kalshi showed a 67% probability during the same period. Prior to the ceasefire, President Trump's ultimatum to Iran on April 7 had driven Brent crude prices above $109 and WTI above $114 due to increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the truce, oil prices dropped significantly, and Bitcoin's value increased alongside declining Treasury yields and a rally in equities.

Shipowners are increasingly seeking insurance coverage to transit the Strait of Hormuz following the recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting that broker McGill and Partners reported a surge in 'huge volume requests' for insurance. The strategic waterway, crucial for global oil shipments, has been a focal point of geopolitical tensions. The ceasefire has prompted shipowners to secure their vessels against potential risks as they navigate this critical maritime route.

U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed Iran's 10-point proposal, deeming it inadequate. According to NS3.AI, the White House announced that the proposal did not meet the necessary criteria for consideration. This rejection highlights ongoing tensions between the two nations as they navigate complex diplomatic relations.

Iran's parliamentary speaker has announced that three critical provisions of the 10-point proposal were violated before negotiations began. According to Odaily, these violations include the failure to adhere to the ceasefire terms in Lebanon, as highlighted by Pakistan's Prime Minister, who called for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in all regions, including Lebanon. Additionally, an invading drone entered Iranian airspace and was destroyed in Larestan, Fars Province, breaching the prohibition against further airspace violations. Furthermore, Iran's right to uranium enrichment, outlined in the framework's sixth article, was denied. These actions have undermined the 'practical conditions' intended as the basis for negotiations, making bilateral ceasefire or talks unreasonable.

イラン議会議長は声明を発表し、10項目提案に含まれる3つの重要な条項が、交渉開始前にすでに違反されていたと述べた。その内容は以下の通りである。第一に、「10項目提案」におけるレバノンでの停戦に関する条項が遵守されていないこと――パキスタン首相はこれについて明確に言及し、「レバノンを含むあらゆる地域において、直ちに発効する全面停戦」であると主張していた。二、侵入した無人機1機がイラン領空に進入し、ファールス州のラル市で撃墜された。これは、イラン領空へのさらなる侵犯を一切禁止する条項に明らかに違反している。三、イランの濃縮ウランに関する権利を否定すること。これは枠組み合意の第6条に含まれている。今や、交渉の基礎となるはずだった「実行可能な条件」は、交渉が始まる前からすでに公然かつ明確に破棄されている。このような状況下で、二国間の停戦を実施したり交渉を行ったりすることは不合理である。（金十）

今日、DeFiが直面する最大の脅威は、相場や流動性だけにとどまらない。セキュリティの面でも、単にコードの脆弱性を防ぐだけでは不十分だ。なぜなら、スパイはすぐそばに潜んでいるかもしれないからだ。

「金色財経」は『金色Web3.0日報』を発行し、MEME、DeFi、DAO、NFT、メタバース業界の最新ニュースをいち早くお届けします。

これ以上時間は必要ありません。大切な時間を守り、あなたにしかできないことに充てるべきです。

Coinbaseは、x402プロトコルをLinux Foundationに正式に寄付し、これを中立的なインターネット標準とした。

Drift事件は、ステーブルコインに関する法的な空白を浮き彫りにした。Circleには資金を凍結する権限があるものの、その義務は課されておらず、凍結措置を講じる際にも「セーフハーバー」としての法的保護が欠如している。

レイ・ダリオ、レイ・ダリオの新記事：世界は戦争のサイクルに突入しつつある　金財網、我々は短期的には終わらない世界大戦の中にいる。

『マネー・フリーダム』は、単なる個人の振り返りにとどまらず、時代、技術、そして権力の境界線に関する真実の記録でもある。

投資の世界では、時に最も「狂気じみた」論理の背後には、最も冷静な計算が隠されていることがある。

同地域での紛争が激化する中、イランのビットコイン採掘能力は過去1四半期で77%も急落した。しかし、グローバルネットワークは概ね維持されており、これは重要な現実を浮き彫りにしている。すなわち、ビットコインのハッシュレートは、戦争よりも市場経済によって左右されるということだ。

イーロン・マスク氏は、OpenAIに対する訴訟内容を修正し、CEOのサム・アルトマン氏と社長のグレッグ・ブロックマン氏の解任を求めているほか、損害賠償金は同社の慈善部門に支払われることを望んでいる。