Trader Unipcs said his X account is temporarily restricted after the platform asked him to label a post as a paid partnership, which he said was inaccurate because he never received a promotion fee. According to Odaily, he has not made the requested change. Unipcs said he will use Fomo more often to share views until his X account is restored. He also reiterated a strongly bullish stance on USELESS, saying his target remains the multibillion-dollar level.

Bernstein analysts expect the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to move quickly on new digital asset rules after the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed to pass a Senate cloture vote on Tuesday. According to Cointelegraph, the analysts said in a Wednesday note shared with Cointelegraph that the agencies are likely to publish regulations to make up for time lost during negotiations over the CLARITY Act, which would have established the country’s first regulatory framework for digital assets. They said the expected measures could include token taxonomy rules for capital raising, developer protections for decentralized finance and self-custodial protocols, innovation exemptions for equity tokenization, faster approval timelines for real-world asset perpetual futures, and amendments to rules covering federal sports event contracts and their classification as swaps. Bernstein said these federal agencies could provide more regulatory clarity for the industry after the CLARITY Act failed to advance, describing the bill as one that would have “fool-proofed the industry against political regime shifts.” The analysts said a re-vote on the act appeared unlikely because of a limited time window and concerns over its ethics provisions. On Aug. 19, the SEC proposed new rules aimed at creating a “clear and fit-for-purpose framework for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets,” while allowing entities to raise capital with investor protections in place. The proposal includes exemptions allowing crypto companies to issue up to $5 million in tokens during four years and up to $75 million during 12 months, along with a safe harbor that would exempt cryptocurrencies from being treated as investment contracts. On July 27, SEC Chair Paul Atkins told CNBC that the agency was “ready, willing, and able to come out with rules” on digital assets if the Senate did not pass the CLARITY Act.

Zcash rose nearly 6% to just above $1,200 in European morning hours Wednesday, the only major in the green. It is up 130% over 30 days and trades near its all-time highs from 2016.XRP led the decliners, down more than 7% to $1.29. Ether and Solana each fell about 3%, with Bitcoin, BNB and Tron all down roughly 1%.Bitcoin traded just under $76,000 after dipping below $75,000 on Tuesday, following the Clarity Act's failure in the Senate.The Divergence Tracks Regulatory ExposureThe split between Zcash and XRP is not random.XRP has been the most direct beneficiary of US regulatory progress this cycle. It rose roughly 5% when the bill cleared Senate Banking in May, its ETF complex has been the only consistent inflow category in recent weeks, and CME's share of its futures open interest climbed to around 17% from 10% in mid-August as offshore leverage drained.That positioning was built on legislation advancing. A 7% decline is that trade unwinding.Zcash carries the opposite exposure. A privacy coin's investment case does not depend on a US framework defining which agency regulates it, and for some holders it improves as legislative clarity recedes.Grayscale's ZCSH, the first US spot ETF for a privacy coin, holds over $414 million — a substantial spot bid relative to a futures open interest that had peaked at $2.4 billion before unwinding 20% earlier this month.Novogratz: 'Clarity Falls Apart on the Five Yard Line'Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz was blunt."Government feels broken," he wrote. "18 months of work between our industry, dems and republicans and Clarity falls apart on the 5 yard line."He assigned responsibility to both sides. "Republicans were afraid of putting real limits on a President's ability to profit from digital assets. Dems decided that this one industry is where they would fight a corruption battle. They were scared to be seen doing anything that could be perceived as being soft on the President."That describes the failure accurately. The provisions that sank the bill were ethics language about officials profiting from digital assets, not the market structure framework the industry wanted.Novogratz expects the agencies to proceed regardless: "I do have faith that the SEC and CFTC will drive on with rules for the road and hopefully in time Congress will find a way to memorialize them."Saylor and Coinbase Read It DifferentlyStrategy executive chairman Michael Saylor took the same position on agency action without the lament."Progress need not wait for Congress," he wrote. "With CLARITY stalled, I expect the SEC, CFTC, and Treasury to advance rules under existing law, banks to expand Bitcoin custody and loans against it, and more capital to favor Bitcoin and digital credit. GENIUS supports stablecoin adoption."Coinbase's Kara Calvert identified a different culprit."The banks did everything in their power to kill the Clarity Act," she said. "The big banks and the small banks worked together to hand Donald Trump a loss and stop financial innovation and competition in America, and they successfully put several Republicans on record as anti-crypto. This was not a zero-sum game, but they made it one."Those are not compatible accounts. Novogratz describes a bipartisan failure over ethics provisions; Calvert describes a banking lobby operation. The vote record on which Republicans broke ranks is the evidence that would distinguish them.Siebert Financial's Brian Vieten had argued before the vote that the outcome mattered less than traders assumed, since failure leaves US firms under the existing SEC and CFTC approach and could pull product launches and tokenization work forward into 2027 and 2028.Long Yields Matter More Than the HikeThe Fed decides later Wednesday with a quarter-point increase already priced.Bitunix analysts told CoinDesk the size of the move matters less than what happens to long-term Treasury yields afterward.If long-dated yields hold near current levels despite a tighter short rate, markets are pricing US inflation and fiscal risk separately from anything the Fed does next.That test has a clean reference point. Friday's CPI produced a flattening — the two-year jumped six basis points while the 10-year held flat, which read as the market treating the Fed's response as adequate. Tuesday reversed it, with the 10-year rising 6.2 basis points against the two-year's 4.4.The 10-year sits at 5.04%, its highest since July 2007, and the 30-year at 5.40%, its highest since June 2007.A steepening after the decision would confirm what Bitunix describes. A flattening would suggest the hike is being read as sufficient.Correlations Have Already Broken DownBitcoin's relationship with its usual reference points has weakened sharply, which complicates reading the reaction.CoinMarketCap data show its short-window correlation with the Dollar Index at +0.08 against −0.54 over 30 days, with the S&P 500 link falling to 0.43 from 0.75 in a single session and gold to 0.28 from 0.69.Head of research Alice Liu attributed it to the regulatory focus displacing macro drivers, warning that "the beta hedge that would have worked Monday is unreliable today, and today's FOMC reaction may be swamped by regulatory follow-through."Talos has recorded a 28% net buying tilt toward stablecoins ahead of the meeting, against an 8% average selling tilt around previous FOMC meetings. Bitcoin buying conviction dropped to 3% from 10% and ether to 9% from 23%.Whether that sidelined cash returns to exchanges after the announcement is the signal worth watching.The decision comes at 2:00 p.m. ET, with projections and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference following.

Bitcoin traders are not panicking about Wednesday's expected rate hike, but they are not taking many chances either.Markets price a 92.5% chance the Fed raises rates for the first time in three years, following strong employment data and stubborn inflation. Bitcoin has spent 24 days between roughly $76,000 and $80,000, trading at $75,790 with volatility at a one-month low.The Stablecoin Tilt Is a 36-Point Swing From NormalTalos has recorded a 28% net buying tilt toward stablecoins ahead of the meeting, according to research analyst Cooper Duschang.Around previous FOMC meetings, investors showed an average 8% selling tilt toward stablecoins.That is a 36-percentage-point reversal from the established pattern. Traders typically rotate out of stablecoins into risk ahead of a Fed decision. This time they are doing the opposite, and at scale.Appetite for the two largest cryptocurrencies moved correspondingly. Bitcoin buying conviction dropped to 3% from 10%, while ether fell to 9% from 23%."The clearest shift has been into stablecoins," Duschang said, with investors "reducing risk and holding greater liquidity ahead of the Fed."The Hold Is the Bigger RiskChris Sullivan of Hyperion Decimus identified where the asymmetry sits."The bond market has done its job and fully priced in tomorrow's hike," he said. The larger shock would come if the Fed does not hike, because that would leave investors wondering what policymakers see that markets do not.That framing has a specific implication. A surprise hold would not simply be dovish — it would signal the Fed has information about growth or financial conditions that has not reached the market.LMAX Group's Joel Kruger reached the same conclusion from a different angle, seeing "greater potential for an outsized move in risk assets to the topside should the Fed ultimately fail to deliver on these hawkish expectations."July 2023 Is the Precedent for a Muted ReactionBitcoin barely moved around the Fed's last rate hike in July 2023, Duschang noted, with the move largely priced before the announcement.The parallel is imperfect but useful. That hike came at the end of a tightening cycle with the destination broadly understood. This one opens a cycle whose length is contested — UBS expects 50 basis points this year, Bank of America 75, Deutsche Bank a path running through March 2027, and Jefferies fewer than markets imply.The decision may be as muted as 2023. The projections carry considerably more information.Leverage Is Not Positioned for a CascadeK33 Research said open interest across Bitcoin futures and perpetuals remains below its yearly average, with little evidence of the leverage that turns a routine selloff into a liquidation wave.That matches other readings. Santiment data shows BTC-denominated open contracts fell 13.5% between September 3 and 11 against a 5% price decline, leaving positioning roughly 20% below pre-rally levels. Open interest has hovered below 680,000 BTC.ARP Digital's Yusuf Fakhro noted funding rates drifting toward zero and futures premiums below 5%.Thin leverage limits the downside cascade. It also removes what anchors price, so each headline moves Bitcoin further than the news warrants.Connors on the Pitchfork ProblemOil is the variable that complicates the policy logic. Crude has risen more than 20% over the past five days, according to Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors.Higher energy prices add to inflation even as the Fed tries to contain it with higher borrowing costs.Connors described another hike as "using a pitchfork to bail out our boat of inflation," arguing monetary policy cannot easily fix inflation caused by an oil supply shock.The supply constraint supports him. Saudi Arabia closed the East-West pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and with Hormuz disrupted and Bab El-Mandeb under threat, production fell to 6.238 million barrels per day — the lowest since 1990. Tanker rates on the Middle East to Far East route topped $1 million per day for the first time, against under $100,000 a year ago.Rate policy does not reopen a pipeline.Where the Sidelined Cash Goes Is the Real SignalThe question for Wednesday afternoon is what happens to the stablecoins traders have accumulated.Duschang will be watching for that money moving back onto exchanges after the announcement. If it does, traders who spent the run-up getting defensive may be preparing to put risk back on.That makes the flow data more informative than the immediate price reaction. A muted move with stablecoins returning to exchanges means something different from a muted move with the cash staying put.For Bitcoin, Wednesday is less about whether the Fed delivers the expected hike and more about what Chair Kevin Warsh signals comes next.Bitcoin's correlations have broken down in the meantime. CoinMarketCap data show its short-window link to the Dollar Index at +0.08 against −0.54 over 30 days, with the S&P 500 correlation falling to 0.43 from 0.75 in a single session after the Clarity Act failed its Senate procedural vote Tuesday.The decision comes at 2:00 p.m. ET, with projections and the press conference following.

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2026年9月16日、ARCメインネットが正式にローンチされました。本記事では、Arc上で注目すべきプロジェクトをまとめます。