Polymarketのようなプラットフォームでは、多くの人々（かつての私を含む）が「パーレイ」（複数のイベントを組み合わせた賭け）のオッズを算出する際、通常は各イベントの確率を単純に掛け合わせる方法を採用している。

The Digital Chamber, a blockchain advocacy group, has introduced a new initiative aimed at supporting prediction markets and clarifying regulatory frameworks for the sector in the United States. According to Cointelegraph, the group announced the formation of the Prediction Markets Working Group on Tuesday, outlining a comprehensive multi-year strategy to address what it describes as a "misunderstood segment of finance." The initial step involves sending a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig, commending his efforts to maintain federal oversight of prediction markets while advocating for an end to regulation through enforcement. The Digital Chamber expressed appreciation for Chair Selig’s recent statements about the CFTC staff's intent to provide specific rulemaking and guidance for this rapidly expanding segment of the financial and digital asset industries. The group highlighted the challenges operators face due to regulatory ambiguity and overlapping jurisdictions between federal and state regulators. Looking ahead, the Digital Chamber plans to continue its engagement with the CFTC, develop policy principles, submit policy recommendations, publish research, and build a coalition of industry stakeholders. Additionally, the group intends to participate in litigation through friend-of-the-court briefings to educate courts on the CFTC’s historical regulatory exclusivity over the sector. The initiative comes amid heightened scrutiny from state governments and regulators. Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, recently faced a civil enforcement action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which seeks to halt Kalshi from offering "unlicensed wagering" in the state. Both Kalshi and competitor Polymarket have encountered resistance from state regulators, who argue that these platforms are offering unlicensed gambling products. In response, Polymarket filed a federal lawsuit against Massachusetts to preemptively block potential enforcement actions, asserting that the CFTC holds primary oversight over the sector. CFTC Chair Selig has reiterated the agency's long-standing regulatory role, urging state governments to respect the CFTC’s authority or face legal challenges. Utah Governor Spencer Cox, however, criticized prediction markets as a form of gambling, arguing they are detrimental to Americans' lives. The ongoing debate underscores the complex regulatory landscape surrounding prediction markets in the U.S.

2026年2月18日、Polymarketは同日よりスポーツ市場において成行注文手数料の試験導入を開始すると発表した。第一弾の対象は全米大学バスケットボール（NCAA）とセリエAとなり、将来的には全てのスポーツイベントへ段階的に拡大される予定である。

Lookonchainのモニタリングによると、10時間前、BitMEX共同創設者Arthur Hayes（0x475...BD5d）がBybitに1000ETH（約199万米ドル相当）を入金した。

Ethereum price found support near $1,920 and recovered some losses. ETH is now consolidating and faces key hurdles near $2,020. Ethereum is attempting a fresh recovery wave above $1,965. The price is trading below $2,000 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average source: https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/eth/ethereum-price-anchors-at-1920/

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte has declared her intention to run for the presidency. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting her announcement as a significant development in the country's political landscape. Duterte, who is the daughter of current President Rodrigo Duterte, has been a prominent figure in Philippine politics. Her decision to enter the presidential race is expected to have a considerable impact on the upcoming elections. As the political scene in the Philippines evolves, Duterte's candidacy will be closely watched by both domestic and international observers.

丙午の新春、皆様のご多幸をお祈り申し上げます：馬を駆り鞭を振るい、実り豊かな一年を。健康に恵まれ、富が着実に増えますように！！

null source: https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2023959522537062654

In the past week, the crypto privacy protocol Zama has seen the highest number of unfollows from top Twitter figures, according to ChainCatcher. Influential personalities who have recently unfollowed Zama include anonymous Twitter KOL Inversebrah (@inversebrah), crypto KOL CBB0FE (@Cbb0fe), and renowned analyst 0xWizard (@0xcryptowizard). Other projects experiencing significant unfollows from top Twitter figures include Moca Network, Drift Protocol, and Astroport.

The Prediction Markets Working Group, launched by The Digital Chamber, will champion the sector’s values while advocating for the CFTC to maintain primary oversight. source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-digital-chamber-launches-prediction-market-working-group?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

オンチェーンアナリストのAi姨の監視によると、1月14日に平均価格3327ドルでポジションを構築した2つのアドレス（0xb12...FfAA、0x826...3cdF)が5分前に再び2600ETH（約516.1万ドル相当）を買い付け、提示価格は1985.19ドルであった。現在までに、当該主体が保有する4200ETHの平均取得コストは2496.38ドルで、現在213.3万ドルの含み損を抱えている。

Japanese companies such as SoftBank, Toshiba, and Hitachi have shown interest in a U.S. gas project unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump. Bloomberg posted on X, citing trade minister Ryosei Akazawa, who informed reporters about the development on Wednesday. The involvement of these major Japanese firms highlights the international interest in the U.S. energy sector under the current administration.

Spot gold prices have seen a 1.00% intraday increase, reaching $4907.25 per ounce. According to NS3.AI, this upward movement suggests a short-term bullish trend in the gold market. The rise in gold prices could potentially affect investor behavior in related asset classes.

金色财经が提供する暗号通貨・ブロックチェーン業界の朝刊『金色早8点』第2971号。最新・最速のデジタル通貨とブロックチェーン業界ニュースをお届けします。

OpenClawコミュニティルール：金融や暗号通貨に関する話題は禁止。これはおそらくWeb3に対する最も鋭い批判であり、最も誠実な忠告でもある。

各世代の富の秘訣は、その世代が集団で達成した新たな合意の一つ一つに刻まれている。

世界秩序は変化しつつある。ビットコインは、ゲームルールそのものが書き換えられていることに起因する、体系的な不安定性に対抗する手段である。

人工知能というゴールドラッシュにおいて、NVIDIAがシャベルを売っているとすれば、中国のインフラ建設者たち（超高圧送電、電力設備、グリーンエネルギー）は真の水源を掌握している。

暗号資産業界を歯に例えるなら、ここ数年の上場（listing）の道筋はまさに「業界の矯正治療」のようなプロセスと言える。

ブリッジウォーター創業者レイ・ダリオはこのほど長文を発表し、世界が「大周期」の第六段階、すなわちルールがなく混乱に満ち、強権が正義となる時代に入ったことを正式に宣言した。