Large Bitcoin holders accumulated more than 270,000 BTC — worth approximately $16.7 billion — over the past two weeks, stepping in as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their worst monthly outflows since launch. The $4.06 billion in June ETF redemptions pushed the products into the red for 2026 as a whole for the first time. The simultaneous institutional selling and whale accumulation is the divergence that Bitfinex analysts describe as a "familiar one" — the pattern that has appeared near prior cycle lows where long-term holders take coins from sellers before any recovery reaches price.The Whale Accumulation SignalLarge wallet holders added more than 270,000 BTC over the two-week period, according to Bitfinex analysts who shared the data with CoinDesk on Friday. The buying was not coming from US spot desks — the spot premium, a gauge of how aggressively US buyers are bidding, stayed negative throughout the accumulation period, ruling out the possibility that the whale buying was simply the same institutional demand that flows through ETFs expressed differently.The negative spot premium combined with 270,000 BTC in large wallet accumulation points to a specific buyer profile: global over-the-counter and direct wallet buyers — likely a combination of high-net-worth individuals, crypto-native funds, and non-US institutional allocators — who are absorbing supply that US ETF redemptions are putting into the market. The mechanism is precisely what Bitfinex identifies as the historical cycle-bottom pattern: long-term holders take coins off sellers at depressed prices before any recovery reaches the price level, building the supply tightening that eventually supports a price recovery once selling pressure exhausts itself.The ETF Divergence — June's Record Outflows in ContextUS spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $4.06 billion in June — the worst month since their January 2024 launch, exceeding the previous record of $3.56 billion set in February 2025. The outflows pushed the products into the red for 2026 as a whole for the first time, meaning the net institutional demand signal from ETFs has turned negative on a year-to-date basis. Thursday's $221 million inflow — the first daily total above $200 million since early May — ended a 10-day outflow streak but does not by itself reverse the structural picture that six consecutive weeks of net redemptions has established.The divergence between ETF outflows and whale accumulation is the most analytically significant data point of the current recovery attempt. Prior cycle lows have consistently featured this same split: retail and institutional products reflecting peak pessimism and redemptions while large, patient holders use the resulting supply availability to build positions. The 270,000 BTC absorbed by large wallets in two weeks represents over $16 billion in demand that did not show up in ETF flow data — illustrating that aggregate market demand is substantially higher than the ETF outflow headline suggests.Solana's Divergence — The One Major That Held UpSolana is the exception among major assets. SOL has risen approximately 15% since early June even as Bitcoin touched 21-month lows — a divergence driven by protocol upgrades and a 120% surge in on-chain transfers of tokenized real-world assets to $8.53 billion. The RWA transfer growth validates the tokenized stock momentum that drove SOL's earlier outperformance and adds a fundamental demand layer to what otherwise might appear to be a relative strength anomaly in a broadly weak market.Bitfinex analysts noted that altcoins tend to sell off first and recover first relative to Bitcoin — a historical pattern that would make Solana's early outperformance consistent with cycle dynamics rather than an idiosyncratic exception. If the pattern holds, SOL's relative strength may be a leading indicator of broader altcoin recovery rather than an isolated narrative play.The L2 Collapse — Optimism and the Base EffectNot every altcoin fits the early-recovery narrative. Optimism and other Ethereum layer-2 tokens are trading near record lows after Base — Coinbase's competing L2 network — dropped Optimism's shared technology stack, removing the fee-capture mechanism that had underpinned the investment thesis for OP token holders. The Base defection eliminates the argument that Optimism's technology would benefit from Base's user growth and transaction fees, leaving the token without the fundamental demand driver that had supported its valuation above record lows.The Optimism situation illustrates the difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum L2 tokens in the current environment: Bitcoin's bear market is macro-driven and characterized by broad institutional de-risking that whale accumulation can absorb. Optimism's decline is thesis-driven — the investment case itself has changed — which makes whale accumulation an insufficient offset.The Next Pivot — June CPI and Warsh's Sintra SignalThe macro catalyst that would convert whale accumulation into price recovery is the next inflation reading. May CPI ran hot at 4.2%, providing the data foundation for the Fed's hawkish June dot plot. Fed Chair Warsh's comment at the ECB's Sintra forum that inflation risks have already eased gave risk assets a small lift — the first indication that Warsh's Fed may be beginning to acknowledge the disinflationary signals from oil's decline toward $70 and the June payrolls miss at 57,000. A softer June CPI print would start to shift the rate-path narrative that has weighed on Bitcoin throughout H1 2026 ahead of the Fed's next meeting — providing the macro permission that the whale accumulation, the UTXO profitability crossover, and the options market normalization have all been waiting for.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman. According to Jin10, Tasnim News Agency reported on July 3 that Ghalibaf made the remarks the same day during a meeting with Iraqi Parliament Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi. Discussing management of the Strait of Hormuz, Ghalibaf said a recently signed memorandum of understanding with the United States had set out provisions on the issue, stating that the strait should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman. He added that Iran was seeking views on the matter from Persian Gulf coastal countries, including Iraq.

The Reserve Bank of India told a parliamentary panel that digital assets should not be used as payment instruments. According to NS3.AI, lawmakers plan to table a report on virtual digital assets during the monsoon session. The panel is scheduled to meet the Department of Economic Affairs on July 15 before finalizing its recommendations.

The cumulative buy-sell volume difference in the altcoin spot market — covering all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin and Ethereum — has fallen to a new low in nearly five years, according to CryptoQuant data cited by market analyst IT Tech. Altcoins have been in a net selling state for more than 15 consecutive months since early 2025, with almost no obvious rebound and no signs of easing selling pressure during that entire stretch. The market has not yet formed a clear bottom. What the Cumulative Buy-Sell Volume Difference Is Measuring The cumulative buy-sell volume difference tracks the running total of spot market buying pressure minus selling pressure across the altcoin complex over time. A declining reading means that sellers have consistently outnumbered and outpaced buyers on a net basis — not simply that prices are falling, but that the actual volume of sell orders being executed is persistently exceeding the volume of buy orders, creating sustained structural downward pressure rather than price declines driven by liquidity gaps or panic. The metric reaching a near five-year low means the cumulative net selling pressure in the current altcoin bear phase now rivals or exceeds every comparable period since approximately 2021. That timeframe includes the 2022 bear market that saw Bitcoin fall to $15,500 and Ethereum fall to $880 following the Terra and FTX collapses — context that frames the current altcoin selling pressure as historically severe rather than a typical mid-cycle correction. Fifteen Months of Uninterrupted Net Selling The 15-month duration of sustained net selling since early 2025 is the most structurally significant element of IT Tech's analysis. Prior altcoin bear phases have typically featured identifiable periods of selling exhaustion — brief windows where net selling pressure eased, buyers briefly returned in volume, and prices stabilized before the next leg lower or eventual recovery. The current phase has produced almost none of these relief windows on a sustained basis. The absence of meaningful selling pressure easing over 15 months distinguishes the current altcoin bear market from shorter, sharper corrections. It is more consistent with the prolonged structural bear phases of 2018-19 and 2022 — both of which featured extended periods of continuous net selling before the eventual exhaustion that preceded recovery — than with the briefer corrections of 2021 and early 2024 that resolved within weeks or months. No Bottom Signal Has Formed IT Tech's conclusion is direct: the altcoin spot market has not yet formed a clear bottom. This assessment is consistent with the broader analytical picture across multiple frameworks throughout the current correction. CryptoQuant's selling pressure indicator for Bitcoin has been silent for 1,256 days — the longest in history — indicating genuine capitulation has not yet occurred in the market's largest asset. Glassnode's UTXO profit/loss ratio has entered the historical bottoming range but requires further deterioration in its 365-day moving average before structural bottom confirmation. And the on-chain demand metrics — active addresses near mid-range, transfer values near the bottom of their range, fees contracting — show no evidence of the demand surge that would accompany genuine bottom formation. For altcoins specifically, the near five-year low in cumulative buy-sell volume difference arriving alongside 15 months of uninterrupted net selling means the preconditions for bottom formation — an exhaustion of sellers followed by buyers returning in volume sufficient to reverse the cumulative net selling trend — remain unmet. Until the buy-sell volume difference stabilizes and begins recovering, sustained altcoin price recovery lacks the structural demand foundation it needs. The Broader Context and What Changes the Picture The altcoin selling pressure data fits precisely within the distribution signals identified elsewhere this week. CryptoOnchain's analysis showed miner outflows surging 564% week-over-week alongside elevated inflows of 18-24 month old coins to exchanges and negative stablecoin net inflows on Binance. Together these signals describe a market where supply is being distributed across multiple holder cohorts simultaneously while the demand side remains insufficient to absorb that supply without further price pressure. The altcoin spot buy-sell volume difference reaching a five-year low is the aggregate expression of that dynamic across the entire non-BTC, non-ETH crypto market. The macro catalysts that would be most likely to change this picture are also the same ones that every other bottom-signal framework has identified as necessary: a sustained Fed communication shift following softer inflation data, a dollar and yield unwind from historically crowded positioning, and a return of stablecoin liquidity to exchanges in volumes sufficient to provide the buy-side depth that 15 months of net altcoin selling has drained from the market.

About 70% of Polymarket’s closed markets logged under $10,000 in reported trading volume from 2021 through end-May 2026, and more than 45,000 markets showed no reported volume, a CNBC analysis found. The findings, according to BeInCrypto, used Polymarket’s Gamma API, which counts notional volume on both sides of each trade, and showed fewer than 10% of closed markets drew $100,000 to $1 million. University of San Diego professor Joshua Della Vedova said bots drove over 80% of volume in sub-$10,000 markets and estimated bot profits of roughly $1.2 million there, $50.5 million in $1 million-$10 million markets, and $35.1 million above $10 million.

Long-term holders currently hold approximately 15.6 million BTC — roughly 78% of Bitcoin's circulating supply — and the percentage continues to rise, according to analyst Darkfost. The headline figure looks constructive. The mechanism behind it requires more careful interpretation. The current increase in LTH holdings is not primarily driven by new accumulation at current prices. It reflects coins purchased approximately six months ago near $90,000 crossing the 180-day threshold that defines long-term holder status under the UTXO model. August will be the first window in which the market can observe whether the more meaningful demand signal — Bitcoin's dip below $60,000 in February — actually stimulated genuine new buying that is now maturing into long-term holder status. The UTXO Mechanic Behind the Rising LTH Figure The long-term holder metric is defined by a specific UTXO rule: Bitcoin must remain unspent for at least 180 days before the address holding it is classified as a long-term holder. This means the metric is not a real-time measure of accumulation sentiment — it is a lagging indicator that reflects what buyers did six months ago, not what they are doing today. The current rise in LTH supply to 15.6 million BTC corresponds to BTC purchased when prices were near $90,000 in approximately late December 2025 and January 2026. Those buyers — who are now underwater by approximately 30% on their positions — have held through the entire first-half correction without selling, which is why their coins have crossed the 180-day threshold and are now classified as long-term holdings. The rising LTH figure does not indicate these holders are adding to their positions. It indicates that the amount of BTC in LTH status is higher than the amount that long-term holders are selling — a necessary but not sufficient condition for the supply tightening narrative. The Historical Context — 16.8 Million BTC in December 2023 In December 2023, LTH supply peaked at approximately 16.8 million BTC — a figure that has since declined as long-term holders conducted large-scale distributions at several peaks in the current cycle. Bitcoin's rise from approximately $40,000 in late 2023 to the $126,000 October 2025 all-time high was accompanied by sustained LTH distribution — the historical pattern in which long-term holders sell into bull market strength, transferring coins to new buyers who become the next cycle's long-term holders. The current cycle is following this historical pattern precisely. LTH supply peaked above 16.8 million BTC, declined through the distribution phase as prices rose, and is now rebuilding as the correction has converted recent buyers into long-term holders. The question is whether the rebuilding reflects genuine demand accumulation at cycle-low prices or simply the aging of coins bought near the top. August as the Key Observation Window Darkfost identifies August as the critical window for answering that question. If the LTH figure continues to rise significantly in August, it will reflect coins bought during February's period when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 entering the long-term holder cohort — those coins are now approaching their six-month maturity threshold and will begin crossing it in August. A sustained increase in LTH holdings through August would therefore indicate that the sub-$60,000 February dip genuinely stimulated new demand from buyers who have since held through volatility rather than selling into the partial recovery. If the LTH figure plateaus or declines in August despite the February dip having been a potential accumulation moment, it would suggest that the demand signal from lower prices was weaker than the supply metrics imply — that buyers at $60,000 in February were fewer in number or smaller in position size than the bottoming-signal frameworks have assumed. The Distribution Phase Caveat Darkfost's historical framing adds an important structural note. In prior cycles, the period from the end of the bear market to the first peak of the bull market was characterized by rapidly rising LTH holdings — exactly the pattern now visible. But that rising LTH phase was followed by the distribution phase in which long-term holders systematically transferred coins to the market as prices climbed, creating the selling pressure that eventually ended each bull market. The current elevated LTH share of 78% is therefore consistent with both a bottoming thesis — long-term holders accumulating before the next bull market — and a pre-distribution setup — long-term holders holding high concentrations before reducing exposure into strength. Which interpretation is correct will depend on whether August's LTH data confirms genuine new demand from February buyers, and whether the macro environment that drove the correction provides the sustained improvement needed to convert the structural accumulation into price recovery.

Circle、ステーブルコイン、ラッセル指数の更新――なぜCircleが脚光を浴びたのか？ 金色財経によると、Circleはラッセル指数から完全に「除外」されたわけではない。

2026年6月30日、米国のステーブルコイン市場で興味深いニュースが報じられた。

ここ最近、暗号資産市場に再び冷え込みが見られ、ビットコインは一時6万ドルの大台を割り込み、主要な暗号資産は軒並み軟調な動きを見せている。

KOSPI指数は年初来で約95％急騰し、ほぼ2倍になった。韓国株式市場が勢いに乗る中、一方で、別の一群の韓国上場企業は、徐々に株式市場から締め出されつつある。

アトキンス氏は、SECの役割は資本市場を統制したり、市場の結果を操作したりすることではなく、資本市場の発展を促進する環境を整えることにあると述べた。一方、批判派は、規制緩和が投資家保護や透明性に悪影響を及ぼすのではないかと懸念している。

Bitgetは、対象ユーザー向けに米国株式オプション取引を開始し、Stock+プラットフォームの対象を暗号資産やトークン化資産の枠を超えて拡大しました。米国オプション取引への需要が高まり続ける中、今回の新サービスではまず、ロング・コールオプションとロング・プットオプションの提供からスタートします。

サム・アルトマン氏が率いる「World Network」と、新たに立ち上げられたソラナ（Solana）ベースの予測市場との間で、公の論争が勃発した。これは、同アイデンティティ・プラットフォームが、ライバルプロジェクトが自社のブランドを偽装していると非難したことを受け、Cloudflareが当該ウェブサイトをフィッシングの疑いがあるページとして警告したことがきっかけとなった。

機関投資家が今後USDCの発行や償還を行いたい場合、Circleにわざわざ出向いて別途口座を開設する必要はなくなります。スタンダードチャータード銀行の口座システムを通じて、一連の手続きをまとめて完了させることができます。

日本と韓国の株式市場では、一部の老舗製造企業の株価上昇率が、多くのAI関連株を凌駕している。

ロシアは、待望のデジタルルーブルが9月1日から全国で利用可能になると発表しており、主要銀行や小売業者も同国の中央銀行デジタル通貨（CBDC）に対応する準備を整えている。しかし、技術的な準備は整っているとはいえ、ロシア国民に実際に利用してもらうよう説得することの方が、より大きな課題となる可能性がある。