Bitcoin News | Bitcoin Falls to $68,000 as Analysts Split on Whether Anthropic’s 6x-Oversubscribed IPO Is Draining Crypto
Bitcoin fell to around $68,000 overnight, its lowest since August, extending a slide of more than 20% since early October as a series of market shocks weighed on crypto. It was last trading near $67,240.Analysts disagree on what’s driving the latest drop. Some point to investors raising cash for Anthropic’s IPO, while others see a broader move out of riskier assets.Anthropic IPO Draws Six Times More Orders Than SharesAnthropic’s IPO, which could raise up to $64.4 billion, is about six times oversubscribed, Bloomberg reported. That means investors have placed orders for six times as many shares as are on offer.Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, said the opening of the order books is pulling money out of liquid markets as investors scramble for an allocation. “When an IPO of this scale comes to market, the lure of a quick return is strong, and liquid assets like bitcoin are often the first source of funding when investors scramble for allocations,” he said.Rocca called it set to be “the largest public listing in history, by a wide margin.” On its own, the IPO would raise less than SpaceX’s $75 billion listing in June. It would be larger only when combined with Anthropic’s separate $26 billion private placement, or if the deal is increased.Rocca compared the rush to SpaceX’s IPO, which he said temporarily drained money from bitcoin. He added that bitcoin has held up relatively well given the amount of bad news markets have absorbed.Other Analysts See Broad Risk-CuttingOther analysts see the drop as part of a market-wide retreat from risk rather than anything specific to bitcoin.“Gold’s decline shows me it is a wholesale derisking deleveraging of the AI trade,” said Mark Connors, chief investment strategist at Risk Dimensions.Chris Sullivan, co-portfolio manager at Hyperium Decimus, said he sees “no logical connection” between Nvidia’s troubles and bitcoin. Instead, he pointed to:Short positions in bitcoin above their August peakLarge outflows from BlackRock’s IBITExtreme fear in crypto marketsThe chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate hike within the next 30 days“Metals are trading lower with crypto, which is again pretty insane,” Sullivan said.Nvidia CEO Exit and Strategy’s MSCI Removal Add PressureSeveral other events have weighed on sentiment:Nvidia: CEO Jensen Huang resigned on November 12, with CFO Colette Kress named interim CEO. Nvidia shares fell as much as 14% that day, hitting the wider AI trade.Strategy: MSCI is removing Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, from its USA Index at the close of November 30 under new rules for non-operating companies. That could force index-tracking funds to sell its shares.Jim Ferraioli, head of crypto research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, said the timing of bitcoin’s sharpest drop, around 11 p.m. Eastern, suggests neither event was the direct trigger.SpaceX IPO Pattern Points to $90,000, One Analyst SaysStrive CEO Matt Cole sees parallels with SpaceX’s IPO. Bitcoin fell 19% in the 50 days before SpaceX listed, compared with 18% over the same period ahead of Anthropic’s planned debut.After SpaceX went public, bitcoin kept falling and hit a low 18 days later, then recovered. By day 100 it was 28% above its level on the listing day. “If Anthropic follows the same pattern, most of the drawdown is behind us, and it could reverse quickly over the next couple of months,” Cole said. A repeat would put bitcoin near $90,000 by late February, he said.The comparison has limits. Bitcoin’s drop around the SpaceX IPO also came with concerns about bitcoin sales by Strategy, so the IPO wasn’t the only factor.
