Serbia Eyes BRICS Membership Amidst Economic Forecasts

Serbia has caught the attention of the BRICS nations, and the feeling seems mutual. BRICS, which has been expanding its membership since the beginning of 2024, may soon welcome Serbia into its fold.

Amidst a global trend to move away from the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, BRICS is extending invitations to nations aligning with this shift.

Could Serbia become the first Balkan nation to join BRICS?

Reports suggest that BRICS has extended an invitation to Serbia to join them at their next summit in Russia later this year. This marks a significant development, considering Serbia's long-standing efforts to join the European Union since 2009, with limited success. It seems Serbia may be considering a pivot towards a different international alliance.

Last year, Serbia's Movement of Socialists successfully persuaded parliament to approve applying for BRICS membership, citing strong public support for the move.

If Serbia accepts the invitation and becomes a member, it would be the first European country to join BRICS, signaling a new chapter in their international relations.

Economic Outlook for Serbia

According to the World Bank's latest report on Thursday, Serbia's economic growth forecast for 2024 has been revised upwards to 3.5% from the previous estimate of 3.0%. The outlook remains positive, with expected growth rates of 3.8% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. However, sustaining this growth will require significant structural reforms, particularly with the EU membership aspirations in mind.

The World Bank also predicts a 5% inflation rate for Serbia in 2024, which is expected to moderate to 3.5% by 2025 and 3.2% in the following year. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.6% of GDP in 2024 from 2.6% in the previous year, with little improvement expected in the near term. On a positive note, Serbia's fiscal deficit is set to decrease from 2.2% of GDP in 2023 to 2.0% in 2024, and further to 1.5% in the coming years.

BRICS Expansion and Future Prospects

BRICS, initially comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded its membership to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE.

While China has historically dominated trade within BRICS, India's economy has been rapidly growing, narrowing the gap. However, trade among BRICS countries remains largely centered around China. China's assertive foreign policy has also led to its prominence within the group, although Brazil's divergence on Ukraine in 2022 showed a potential for discord.

China's proposal to include countries with diverse economic statuses and major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE in BRICS reflects its ambition to broaden the group's scope. However, the success of this expansion hinges on how BRICS manages its internal dynamics and global perception.

The use of local currencies for trade, especially with China, is a key objective for BRICS to ensure fairness in global trade. How BRICS navigates its internal challenges and external perceptions, particularly in light of China's influence, will determine its future success.