Bitcoin at Risk of Death Cross Amid Ongoing Market Turbulence

After months of stability around $67,000, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced significant fluctuations. In June, concerns about a major German government cryptocurrency sale and Mt. Gox repayments led to a drop below $56,000. Despite a recovery in July, Bitcoin fell below $50,000 in early August amid broader market instability and fears of a recession in the U.S. and unrest in Asia.

Imminent Death Cross

As of August 7, Bitcoin is on the verge of forming a death cross—a bearish signal on its daily chart. This pattern occurs when a short-term moving average (MA) crosses below a long-term MA, typically indicating further price declines. Should Bitcoin maintain its current price of $57,114, it will likely complete this pattern.

BTC chart showing imminent death cross. Source: @Barchart

However, if Bitcoin rises to around $61,600, the death cross could be avoided, potentially leading to a stronger rally. Despite a 4.84% increase in the past 24 hours, technical indicators, such as the TD Sequential tool, suggest a downward trend.

Expert Insights

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin must reclaim approximately $59,110 by the week's end to stabilise. A rally above $61,000 seems unlikely given current conditions. Nevertheless, past occurrences of the death cross did not result in prolonged declines; Bitcoin recovered from a similar pattern in April, rebounding from $64,500 to above $58,000 within a month.

Performance Overview

Despite recent setbacks, Bitcoin's performance over the past year remains strong. As of August 7, it has risen 32.74% since the start of the year and 88.94% over the past 12 months. Although it is down 13.74% in the last week, Bitcoin’s overall positive trajectory in 2024 continues to be evident.

BTC YTD price chart. Source: Finbold