According to PANews, despite the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut and dovish signals, the U.S. stock and bond markets are experiencing a complex divergence due to challenges in the artificial intelligence sector. The upcoming reports from the U.S. Department of Labor on non-farm employment, consumer inflation, and retail sales are expected to provide deeper insights into the economic health.
Key events for the upcoming week include:
On Monday at 21:30 (UTC+8), the December New York Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. At 22:30, Federal Reserve Governor Milan will deliver a speech, followed by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams discussing economic prospects at 23:30.
Tuesday at 21:30 will see the release of the U.S. November unemployment rate, November seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figures, and October retail sales monthly rate.
On Wednesday at 22:05, Williams will give the opening remarks at the 2025 Forex Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed.
Thursday at 01:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on economic prospects. At 21:30, the U.S. November unadjusted CPI annual rate/core CPI annual rate, November seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate/core CPI monthly rate, initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13, and the December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released.
The upcoming U.S. CPI data release is expected to be a pivotal point for the dollar's trajectory. Should the CPI data fall below expectations (with the latest figure at 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it would further validate the Fed's rate cut cycle, potentially exerting additional downward pressure on the dollar. Conversely, a higher-than-expected CPI could reverse this trend.