OTC Weekly Trading Insights (04/10/2025)

Top Interest of the WeekThe SuperRare platform, recognized for its NFT marketplace, has transitioned to a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) model, allowing users to take a more significant role in managing and selecting artists. The governance token, SuperRARE ($RARE), empowers holders to participate in the platform's decision-making processes. On April 3rd, SuperRare unveiled its own art gallery in New York City, resulting in a 40% surge in the value of its governance token, $RARE, reflecting strong investor enthusiasm for the initiative. Usual ($USUAL) is a decentralized issuer of fiat stablecoins, aiming to transform access to Real-World Assets (RWAs) within the cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors. By utilizing blockchain technology, Usual develops financial products that emphasize transparency, decentralization, and fair value distribution.MANTRA ($OM) is a blockchain ecosystem that seeks to connect traditional finance with decentralized technology. It specializes in the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWAs), allowing users to digitize, trade, and manage both physical and financial assets securely, efficiently, and in compliance with regulations. MANTRA Chain has recently announced the establishment of the MANTRA Ecosystem Fund (MEF), a $108.8 million investment initiative aimed at fostering the growth and adoption of projects within the MANTRA ecosystem.The RWA sector has recently seen increased activity, with our desk observing strong flows in projects like $USUAL and $OM.Overall MarketSource: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.Last week, our analysis took a pessimistic view for the short term, anticipating a transition to a more optimistic perspective if the Federal Reserve decides to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. This forecast is consistent with past actions taken by the Fed in response to weakening economic signals, including easing inflation or slowing growth, trends that recent data has started to indicate.The escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China, marked by increased import tariffs, led to a significant drop in global risk assets. On Monday, the S&P 500 index fell to an intraday low of 4,835, representing a 21.35% decline from its peak of 6,147 reached on February 19. This downturn had a ripple effect on international equity markets, resulting in substantial sell-offs in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The cryptocurrency market also reflected this negative trend, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to a low of $74,500 and Ethereum (ETH) falling to $1,411, highlighting a widespread risk-averse attitude.As we pointed out in our commentary on March 13, risk assets often tend to decline before the implementation of tariffs, followed by brief recoveries shortly after. However, these temporary rallies have consistently failed to reverse the overall downward trajectory. This pattern was evident again on April 9, when new US tariffs on imports came into effect, and the market initially opened with a slight increase, in line with historical trends.During the session, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all nations except China. This news triggered a rapid and significant shift in market sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook. The S&P 500 finished the day with a 9.5% increase, while Bitcoin surged over 9% to an intraday high of $83,400, driven by a notable short squeeze. A short squeeze occurs when a rapid increase in the price of a heavily shorted asset forces short sellers to buy back shares to cover their positions, further driving up the price. This incident underscores the market's responsiveness to geopolitical developments.This trend mirrors a previous short squeeze on March 2, when President Trump announced intentions to add several altcoins to the US strategic crypto reserve. This news led to a 9% surge in Bitcoin, pushing its price to $95,000, although these gains were completely reversed after 24 hours. Such instances highlight the capacity of high-profile political actions to temporarily disrupt market dynamics. However, over extended timeframes, markets tend to revert to levels dictated by underlying fundamentals, tempering short-term enthusiasm.As the ongoing tariff conflict is primarily between the US and China, our desk is closely monitoring the situation and providing timely analysis of its effects on the cryptocurrency market. We have taken a neutral position on Bitcoin, as its price has stabilized within our previously established support range of $73,000 to $76,000. This zone is technically robust, underpinned by key moving averages and historical consolidation levels, suggesting resilient buying interest. While BTC may test this support in the near term, we anticipate it will hold as a critical floor.At the same time, our desk is carefully observing the US 10-year Treasury yield and any potential liquidity-boosting actions from the Federal Reserve. A drop in yields or signs of upcoming rate cuts could serve as a catalyst for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the Fed indicates an early rate cut or implements quantitative easing, we see this as a possible inflection point that could trigger a significant rebound in both traditional risk assets and the cryptocurrency market.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (25-04-03)US initial jobless claims were reported at 219,000, which is below the anticipated figure of 225,000. This indicates that the US labour market remains strong, as evidenced by the low number of new unemployment claims. However, continuing jobless claims reached 1,903,000 last week, surpassing the expected 1,860,000. This trend suggests that while companies are not laying off employees, they may be implementing hiring freezes. Should economic conditions deteriorate due to tariffs, the market anticipates an increase in layoffs and a rapid decline in labour market conditions.The S&P Global Services PMI was recorded at 54.4 in March, slightly above the forecast of 54.3. Conversely, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, falling short of the predicted 53.0. Given that the ISM non-manufacturing PMI covers a broader range of industries, it reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook among purchasing managers regarding the future business climate.Last Friday (25-04-04)In March, the US nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 jobs, greatly exceeding the expected total of 137,000. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% for the month, which matched market predictions. At the same time, the unemployment rate saw a minor uptick, moving from 4.1% in February to 4.2% in March. Given the favourable state of the US labour market, analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate cuts until June.On Wednesday (25-04-09)The Reserve Bank of India has reduced its interest rate from 6.25% to 6.00%, aligning with market expectations. Effective midnight local time on April 9, the United States will implement tariffs on all its trading partners. In response, China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods after President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products to over 100%.During the trading session, President Trump announced that he set new tariff rates for imports from most U.S. trading partners at 10% for a period of 90 days to facilitate trade negotiations while imposing a 125% tariff on Chinese goods. Following this announcement, market sentiment shifted dramatically, with the S&P 500 index rising by 9.52% and the NASDAQ index increasing by 12.16%. Bitcoin's price surged past $83,000, marking a 9% increase, while MicroStrategy's stock price jumped by 24.7%.Convert Portal Volume ChangeThe above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, the Real World Assets (RWA) sector emerged as a key player in driving growth in trading volume on the Convert platform. Our team also observed significant trading activity in the Liquid Staking and Monitoring sectors, indicating a healthy interest in these areas. Even though the market sentiment was bearish over the weekend, several altcoins managed to perform remarkably well, which in turn stimulated strong trading demand within the sector. This resilience highlights the dynamic nature of the market and the potential for growth even in challenging conditions.In the RWA sector, robust demand for trading led to a 41.0% increase in trading volume, primarily driven by heightened interest in Usual ($USUAL) and MANTRA ($OM).In the Liquid Staking sector, trading volume rose by 37.3% last week, largely propelled by strong market demand on Binance Staked SOL ($BNSOL).Why trade OTC?  Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email: [email protected] for more information.Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!