Morgan Asset Management fixed income chief investment officer Iain Stealey said a decision by the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday local time could surprise markets. According to Sina Finance, he said traders are almost certain the Fed will raise rates, and a hold could trigger a selloff in U.S. Treasuries.
Stealey said a rate hold would deliver a major shock to markets and that the long end of the yield curve would not like the outcome. He also said he is watching whether the Federal Open Market Committee decision will include dissenting votes, adding that his base case is for officials to present a united front.
He said the bigger question is whether markets will price in rates staying unchanged for a longer period or the start of another rate-hike cycle. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed overall, with the 10-year yield hovering around 5%.
Stealey said the 5% yield level is attractive and described it as a good investment opportunity. He added that one of the biggest challenges for central banks is how high oil prices will feed through to markets, saying there is a very strong correlation between energy prices and bond yields.