European Central Bank Set for Second Rate Hike of 2026 as Oil Tops $100

According to Jin10, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates for the second time this year on Thursday to curb an energy-driven inflation surge triggered by the Iran war. Since late August, attacks by the United States and Iran have broken a month of relative calm, with strikes on military, shipping, and energy assets pushing oil back above $100 per barrel and reviving concerns about renewed price increases in the import-dependent eurozone. Economists expect the ECB to lift its policy rate from 2.25% to 2.50% and signal further tightening if the inflation outlook does not improve. Amundi Investment Institute global macroeconomics head Alessia Berardi said a September rate hike appears almost certain, with inflation still elevated and likely to remain sticky over the next few months before gradually easing in the second half of next year.