Bianco Says Powell's Silence Could Decide Fed's September Rate Vote

Bianco Research founder Jim Bianco said the Federal Reserve's September 16 meeting is shaping up as a near-even vote, with the outcome still uncertain. According to ChainCatcher, he said the current count appears to be 6 votes for holding rates and 5 for a hike, with Fed Governor Jerome Powell's vote still unknown. Bianco said Powell has not spoken publicly since his May press conference and appears to be staying out of the spotlight. He argued that U.S. President Donald Trump's continued criticism of the Fed has made committee members more likely to state their positions publicly, rather than rely on internal consensus. Bianco said that if members vote in line with their public comments, Powell's vote could be decisive. He added that the probability of a rate hike is effectively 50/50 less than two weeks before the meeting. On August 30, Bianco had predicted a 7-5 vote on September 16, but said he was unsure whether it would be 7-5 for a hike or 7-5 for holding rates. He also noted that since 1936 there has never been a 6-6 Fed vote, and said the Federal Reserve Act does not specify what happens in the event of a tie.