CLARITY Act Faces Low Odds of Becoming Law in 2026, Prediction Markets Show

Prediction markets on Polymarket put the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law and being signed by the president in 2026 at 15%, with related contracts trading about $11.62 million. According to Odaily, Kalshi data shows a 30% chance that the bill or another qualifying crypto market structure bill becomes law by July 1, 2027, and a 50% chance by January 1, 2028. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill said in a September 2 hearing that House passage of the CLARITY Act was among the committee's accomplishments. He added that Republican committee members are pushing to write the reforms into law so financial rules remain long-term and predictable. The Senate calendar shows that the motion to end debate on H.R. 3633 could first come up for a vote at 2:15 p.m. on September 15, and such a motion typically requires 60 votes. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14 by a 15-9 vote, and later revised text addressed SEC and CFTC regulatory authority, consumer protection, illicit finance, DeFi, intermediary oversight, and disclosure requirements.