Friday night marked the first night in approximately two weeks without reported US military strikes on Iran, according to US Central Command — which made no announcement of new military action. Trump claimed Tehran would "love to make a deal" after mulling potential escalation with Cabinet officials, saying Iran is "getting more serious" about negotiations. Iranian military officials immediately dismissed the comments, with one suggesting Iran would welcome a US ground invasion rather than negotiations. The Gulf of Oman saw a separate incident involving a tanker and "military forces" reported by the UK's maritime agency. In the Red Sea, Saudi authorities activated warnings in two provinces bordering the waterway as Houthi-affiliated media reported Saudi airstrikes on the major port city of Hodeidah following an attack on a Saudi vessel.
Red Sea — Saudi Provinces on Alert, Hodeidah Struck
The Red Sea situation is escalating independently of the US-Iran direct conflict dynamic. Saudi Arabia activated warnings in two provinces bordering the Red Sea as Houthi-affiliated media reported Saudi airstrikes on Hodeidah — the major port city that has been the primary Houthi logistics hub throughout the Yemen conflict. A reported attack on a Saudi vessel preceded the Saudi airstrikes. The Saudi-Houthi Red Sea confrontation is a second simultaneous shipping disruption operating alongside Hormuz — and it is not contingent on US-Iran diplomatic developments. Even if the US and Iran reached a ceasefire that reopened Hormuz, the Red Sea's Houthi-driven disruption would continue independently unless the Iran-Houthi support relationship changed simultaneously.
The Oil Market Read-Through Into FOMC Week
The strike pause and Trump's deal comments arriving on the eve of FOMC week create a specific market dynamic. Oil markets will open Sunday with the first night-without-strikes signal since the conflict escalated — a development that would typically produce a partial oil price decline as Hormuz risk premium is partially repriced lower. But the Iran military official's dismissal of negotiations, the ongoing Red Sea Saudi-Houthi confrontation, and the Gulf of Oman tanker incident confirm that the structural supply disruption has not resolved. Any Sunday oil decline is therefore likely to be partial and fragile — the same whipsaw pattern that sent WTI from $91 to $80 on Monday's ceasefire report before rebounding to $97+ by Friday.
For Bitcoin heading into FOMC week at $63,802 — with the 200-week SMA at $62,873 just $929 away — any oil price decline that reduces near-term inflation expectations and reduces the probability of hawkish FOMC forward guidance is constructive. But the pattern of this conflict is that every oil relief event has been temporary and partially reversed within 48-72 hours. The FOMC meeting July 28-29 will occur with oil somewhere in the $85-$100 range regardless of Sunday's open — and the Fed's forward guidance will need to account for that reality rather than pricing in a Hormuz normalization that has not materialized.
Catherine
