Polymarket Truce Odds Fall for U.S.-Iran 14-Day Ceasefire Event

PPP prediction market monitoring showed that on Polymarket, the probability of the “When Will the U.S. and Iran Reach a Two-Week Ceasefire” event stood at 34% for August 14, down 1% on the week. According to Odaily, the probability for August 31 was 51%, down 3% on the week. Under the settlement rules, the market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time between the market’s creation and the specified cutoff time of 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time, there is a continuous 14-day period during which the U.S. does not carry out qualifying military action against Iran. Qualifying military action refers to U.S.-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly targeting Iranian territory. The article said U.S. forces have struck Iranian military targets for 13 consecutive nights and that Iran has rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal. It also said no signs of de-escalation have emerged in the short term. Separately, people familiar with the matter said Trump has grown increasingly frustrated as the war drags on, while his advisers worry that it has pushed up prices, hurt his approval rating, and killed more than a dozen U.S. service members.