Polymarket Launches Market on When the U.S. and Iran Will Reach a Two-Week Ceasefire

Polymarket has launched a market asking when the U.S. and Iran will reach a two-week ceasefire, with the probability for July 18 at 5%, July 24 at 15%, July 31 at 23%, August 14 at 43%, and August 31 at 54%. According to Odaily, the market will settle as “yes” if the U.S. takes no military action against Iran from the market’s creation until 11:59 p.m. on the specified end date. The rule defines the first day of the 14-day period as the calendar date of the most recent qualifying military action, based on Eastern Time. The period runs until noon Eastern Time on the 14th day. If the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date, the market will be treated as “yes.” The article says qualifying military action means U.S.-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes directly against Iran. It says airstrikes may include bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and drones launched from the air, while surface-to-surface missile strikes may include one-way attack drones and cruise or ballistic missiles. It also lists actions that do not qualify, including munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact, surface-to-air missile strikes, small arms fire, ground invasion, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery fire, howitzers, cannons, mortars, rocket artillery such as multiple launch rocket systems, small surface-to-surface strikes, short-range cruise missiles, close air support drones, anti-tank missile attacks, and threats, authorizations, or statements of force that have not been carried out.