Estimates put 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.7%-3.8% as June CPI cools

According to CNBC, cooling inflation has lowered some estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to 3.7% to 3.8%. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, estimated a 3.7% COLA, down from her prior 4.7% estimate last month, after government data showed the consumer price index rose 3.5% over the past 12 months as of June, helped by lower energy prices. The Senior Citizens League projected a 3.8% COLA, unchanged from last month, while noting estimates can change ahead of the Social Security Administration’s typical October announcement. The Medicare trustees report released in June estimated Medicare Part B premiums at $209.50 per month in 2027 versus $202.90 in 2026, and set the Medicare Part D deductible at $700 in 2027 versus $615 in 2026, with the catastrophic threshold at $2,400 versus $2,100 in 2026.