US Budget Data Show USD 81 Billion in Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling

According to Lianhe Zaobao, US budget data released on July 13 showed the government has refunded tens of billions of dollars in previously collected tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled some tariffs illegal, contributing to the first widening of the federal budget deficit since the fiscal year began. The data showed the US has paid USD 81 billion in tariff refunds so far this fiscal year, far above USD 5 billion in the same period a year earlier; a US Treasury official said the jump was almost entirely due to the court ruling, with most refunds concentrated in May and June. The current US fiscal year began in October 2025. In the first nine months, the federal budget deficit totaled USD 1.367 trillion, up 2% year over year, including a USD 120 billion deficit in June. Evercore ISI wrote in a July 10 report that the tariff refund program is large enough to have a significant impact at the macroeconomic, fiscal and market levels, but said the refunds represent only a temporary increase in the deficit as the Trump administration builds new tariff barriers. The Office of the US Trade Representative is investigating about 60 countries for potential violations of forced-labor bans, and the findings could be used as a basis to raise tariffs; Evercore ISI forecasts tariff revenue will ultimately exceed USD 300 billion a year.