CryptoQuant Analyst Says Bitcoin Futures Basis Turns Positive After Late-June Low

Bitcoin futures market indicators have shown early signs of improvement, with futures prices rising above spot for the first time in a month, according to a report by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. According to PANews, the futures basis returned to positive territory in early July after hitting a low of -0.40% in the third week of June. The 30-day moving average of the open interest index also turned positive, reflecting a surge in long position openings over the past few days. However, Adler said the improvements remain limited. He noted that the premium is only slightly above zero and that the open interest index has shown signs of cooling over the past two days. Adler said the current conditions appear closer to normalization than a trend reversal, adding that confirmation would require the basis to stay positive and open interest to remain in positive territory. He also cited the main risk as an early return of leveraged demand that fails to persist, which could trigger another round of market deleveraging.