CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Bull Market Capital Efficiency Has Declined Sharply Since 2011

Bitcoin’s bull market “capital efficiency” has fallen significantly across cycles, with progressively larger net inflows producing smaller percentage gains, according to CryptoQuant data. According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant estimates that the 2011 cycle saw about $2.8 billion in net inflows drive roughly 55,000% gains, while the 2015 cycle saw about $69 billion correspond to nearly 10,000%. The 2018 cycle recorded about $365 billion for around 2,000%, and the current cycle since 2022 has seen about $697 billion for a 689% return. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said the data implies Bitcoin would need to become a core macro asset rather than being driven mainly by retail-led ETF trading. He added that the next parabolic move would require more than $1 trillion in new inflows, which he said is far above current levels of institutional adoption. The report noted challenges to that view, citing record outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past month, Bitcoin ending the first half of the year in the red, and retail capital leaving rather than institutional inflows accelerating.