Cathay Haitong Expects Summer Travel Demand to Lift Airline Passenger Traffic and Fares

Cathay Haitong said summer travel demand is expected to strengthen as China’s school summer holidays begin, while falling oil prices and lower domestic fuel costs may support airline operations. According to Jin10, the brokerage said the 2026 Spring Festival falls relatively late, so primary and secondary school summer breaks are slightly later than in 2025. It said airline ticket presales accelerated from late June, and hotel and train bookings rose year on year, while the pace of airline ticket presales lagged the same period of 2025 due to higher fares. The report said the “15th Five-Year Plan” period is expected to sustain an aviation demographic dividend. It added that family travel has remained strong over the past three years, and the industry views summer family travel as relatively rigid demand. Cathay Haitong expects that as students begin taking summer holidays in early July, airline passenger traffic will gradually pick up and drive fare growth back into positive territory. It also said international oil prices have fallen quickly and domestic oil prices are expected to be cut month by month. The report expects the summer flight operation rate to rise notably from the second quarter. It said peak-season supply and demand conditions and efforts against excessive competition are expected to help ensure a clear improvement in airline operating performance.