Kalshi recorded its highest monthly trading volume in June as activity surged across prediction markets tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. According to Cointelegraph, DefiLlama data shows Kalshi logged nearly $9.4 billion in June trading volume, up from about $5.3 billion in May, while Polymarket International rose to roughly $4.3 billion from about $3.5 billion a month earlier. The tournament, which kicked off on June 11 and is the first FIFA World Cup to feature 48 teams instead of 32, became the biggest driver of prediction-market trading during the month, CNBC reported. Dune Analytics data cited by CNBC showed record notional trading volumes on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with knockout-stage matches drawing some of the strongest interest.
Specific Round of 16 markets were among the most active. Canada’s Round of 16 match against Morocco, scheduled for Saturday, had generated over $48 million in trading volume on Kalshi and over $26.8 million on Polymarket at the time of writing. The United States’ Round of 16 match also attracted notable participation, with Kalshi’s market on which team will advance generating more than $2.1 million in volume, while a comparable market on Polymarket drew around $1.6 million as of Saturday. The surge in trading comes as prediction markets face intensifying legal and regulatory scrutiny in the United States. By March, nearly a dozen US states had moved against companies including Kalshi and Polymarket, with some seeking to halt the markets and others aiming to bring them under existing gambling laws and state tax frameworks.
Federal regulators have pushed back against state efforts to police prediction markets. The following month, CFTC Chair Michael Selig accused states of pursuing “illegal enforcement actions” against federally regulated exchanges, arguing Congress granted the agency sole authority over commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets. Selig said that states seeking to nullify federal law and seize authority over these markets would face court challenges. The debate has also expanded beyond regulators. In June, casino operators, tribal organizations, and labor groups urged Congress to remove sports-event contracts from the CFTC’s authority through an amendment to the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, arguing such contracts should remain under state gambling laws and existing gaming oversight. In Europe, regulators signaled a different stance: on Friday, the European Securities and Markets Authority reminded firms that many event contracts may already fall under restrictions on binary options, stating regulation depends on a product’s characteristics rather than the “event contract” label.
Catherine
