Analyst Says RBA Rate-Hike Odds Fall to 15% as Australian Dollar Weakens

The Australian dollar fell against major currencies during Wednesday’s European session, facing heavy selling pressure as U.S. Treasury yields surged and risk-off sentiment increased. According to Jin10, FX analyst Sagar Dua said the currency was also weighed down by fading expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would raise rates again. Market pricing showed a 15% probability that the RBA would lift the cash rate from 4.35% at its next meeting in August, while the probability that the current tightening cycle had ended was 50%. Dua added that as oil prices recovered to near pre-war levels in the Middle East, global inflation expectations had stabilized, which cooled the outlook for a more hawkish stance from the RBA.